The following is my portfolio as at 2015 Dec (not in any order).Compare to last year portfolio, the major action was divesting 10 lots of SingPost at $1.98 and reinvested into OUE Comm Reit and LMIR. Not a good year for me as with most people. the star performer in my portfolio in 2015 was SATs.
Edited in the prices as at Dec 31 (after trading).
DBS ($16.69)
SPH ($3.94)
SingTel ($3.67)
StarHub ($3.70)
CityDev ($7.65)
SP Ausnet ($1.51)
Keppel Infra Trust ($0.51)
Olam ($1.82)
Wilmar ($2.94)
SIA ($11.20)
Keppelcorp ($6.51)
SembCorp ($3.05)
CMPacific ($0.875)
CroesusRetail ($0.81)
CDL Trust ($1.325)
AsiaPay TV Trust ($0.64)
Capital China Trust ($1.49)
Ascendas India Trust ($0.87)
Lippo Malls Trust ($0.32)
SuntecReit ($1.55)
OUE Comm Trust ($0.655)
StarHillGlobal Reit ($0.755)
SATs ($3.84)
First Reit ($1.20)
KReit ($0.93)
Accordia Golf Trust ($0.535)
SoilBuild Trust ($0.77)
HPH Trust ($0.75)
SuperGroup ($0.84)
OCC 5.1%NCPS 100 ($104.4)
DBS$800M4.7%NCPS ($105.50)
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Marco Polo Marine - Potential Bankruptcy?
Yesterday, MP Marine issued a statement that it had unilaterally terminated a contract for a high spec rig (scheduled to be delivered in Q4 F15) from PPL shipyard due to material breaches on the delivery of the contract. Specifically, cracks were found to be all three legs of the rigs after two rounds of testing.It s also going to claim back the initial 10% deposit of the contract through the legal process.
This morning, Sembcorp Marine, the parent of PPL shipyard issued a statement that PPL did not yet received the termination order and will considered MP Marine unilateral announcement as a breach of the contract and will take the necessary actions to reclaim it rights.
The way I see it is that this is NOT AN OVERNIGHT decision that surprised both sides. MP Marine could not have just paid up 10% of the contract and expect delivery by Q4 FY15. It must have missed at least one or more subsequent payments.With a market cap of just $70m and in such a difficult O&G environment with oil prices hovering around $US40, there is no way it could have proceed forward to take delivery of the rig when it is a newbie in the rig leasing business with zero customer.
Now the matter has gone to legal, it will be reasonable to expect a tussle but the chances of MP Marine getting reimbursed back for the initial 10% deposit is low at this late stage in the project.In the worse case, bankruptcy is not a impossible scenario. the CEO Sean Lee may have been too preoccupied with his new bride Vivian Hsu to keep his eyes on the crystal ball.This is evidenced by the more than 10% drop in MP Marine share price today.
My two cents worth!
This morning, Sembcorp Marine, the parent of PPL shipyard issued a statement that PPL did not yet received the termination order and will considered MP Marine unilateral announcement as a breach of the contract and will take the necessary actions to reclaim it rights.
The way I see it is that this is NOT AN OVERNIGHT decision that surprised both sides. MP Marine could not have just paid up 10% of the contract and expect delivery by Q4 FY15. It must have missed at least one or more subsequent payments.With a market cap of just $70m and in such a difficult O&G environment with oil prices hovering around $US40, there is no way it could have proceed forward to take delivery of the rig when it is a newbie in the rig leasing business with zero customer.
Now the matter has gone to legal, it will be reasonable to expect a tussle but the chances of MP Marine getting reimbursed back for the initial 10% deposit is low at this late stage in the project.In the worse case, bankruptcy is not a impossible scenario. the CEO Sean Lee may have been too preoccupied with his new bride Vivian Hsu to keep his eyes on the crystal ball.This is evidenced by the more than 10% drop in MP Marine share price today.
My two cents worth!
Thursday, November 5, 2015
LMIRT 3QFY2015
Revenue = $43,547,000
NPI = $40,290,000
Distributable Income = $21,487,000
DPU = 0.77 cents
NAV = 37 cents
Gearing = 35%
NPI = $40,290,000
Distributable Income = $21,487,000
DPU = 0.77 cents
NAV = 37 cents
Gearing = 35%
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
SAT 2QFY15/16
Revenue $422.7m
Operating Profit $59.2m
Share Of Associates $11.9m
PATMI $59.7m
EPS 5.4 cents
NAV $1.31
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
Operating Profit $59.2m
Share Of Associates $11.9m
PATMI $59.7m
EPS 5.4 cents
NAV $1.31
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
Thursday, October 29, 2015
CDL Trust 3QFY2015
NPI $33,080,000
Income Available For Dist $25,880,000
DPU 2.36 cents
Occupany 90.2%
ARR $201
RevPAR $181
Debt $930m
Gearing 36.5%
Interest Cover 6.6X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.6%
NAV $1.586
Income Available For Dist $25,880,000
DPU 2.36 cents
Occupany 90.2%
ARR $201
RevPAR $181
Debt $930m
Gearing 36.5%
Interest Cover 6.6X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.6%
NAV $1.586
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
StarHillGlobal Reit 1QFY2015/2016
Revenue $56.8m
NPI $43.6m
Income Available For Dist $30.0m
DPU 1.31 cents
Total Debt $1,127m
Gearing 35.7%
Interest Cover 4.8X
Average Interest Rate 3.13%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 74%
NAV 88 cents
NPI $43.6m
Income Available For Dist $30.0m
DPU 1.31 cents
Total Debt $1,127m
Gearing 35.7%
Interest Cover 4.8X
Average Interest Rate 3.13%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 74%
NAV 88 cents
Monday, October 26, 2015
AscendasIndiaTrust 2QFY2015/16
Total Property Income = Rupee 1,704m
NPI = Rupee 1,107m
Income Available For Dist = $14m
DPU = 1.37 cents (1HFY2015/2016 2.74 cents)
NAV = 65 cents
Interest Cover = 4.2
Gearing = 27%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 7%
Effective Borrowings = $342m (INR:75%,SGD:25%)
INR:SGD (46.7:1)
NPI = Rupee 1,107m
Income Available For Dist = $14m
DPU = 1.37 cents (1HFY2015/2016 2.74 cents)
NAV = 65 cents
Interest Cover = 4.2
Gearing = 27%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 7%
Effective Borrowings = $342m (INR:75%,SGD:25%)
INR:SGD (46.7:1)
Saturday, October 24, 2015
CRCT 3QFY2015
Gross Revenue RMB 251,812,000
NPI RMB 160,301,000
NPI $ 35,204,000
Distributable Income $ 22,254,000
DPU 2.64 cents (2.35 cents for 3QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.68
Gearing 28.5%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.98%
Unencumbered Assets 96.7%
NPI RMB 160,301,000
NPI $ 35,204,000
Distributable Income $ 22,254,000
DPU 2.64 cents (2.35 cents for 3QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.68
Gearing 28.5%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.98%
Unencumbered Assets 96.7%
Thursday, October 22, 2015
SuntecReit 3QFY2015
Gross Revenue = $81.1m
NPI = $58.5m
Distributable Income = $63.6m
DPU = 2.522 cents
Total Liabilities = $3342m
Gearing = 35.8%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.74%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.2X
Adjusted NAV = $2.066
NPI = $58.5m
Distributable Income = $63.6m
DPU = 2.522 cents
Total Liabilities = $3342m
Gearing = 35.8%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.74%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.2X
Adjusted NAV = $2.066
Monday, October 19, 2015
KeppelReit 3QFY2015
Distribution Income = $54.4m
DPU = 1.7 cents
NAV = $1.37
All-In Interest rate = 2.5%
Interest Cover Ratio = 4.4
Leverage = 42.6%
Fixed Rate Borrowing = 72%
Unecumbererd Assets = 72%
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
SoilBuild Reit 3QFY2015
Gross Revenue = $20,701K
NPI = $17,777K
Distributable Income = $15,147K
DPU = 1.625 cents
NAV = 80 cents
Leverage = 36.1%
Average All-In Interest Ratio = 3.2%
Interest Cover = 4.6X
NPI = $17,777K
Distributable Income = $15,147K
DPU = 1.625 cents
NAV = 80 cents
Leverage = 36.1%
Average All-In Interest Ratio = 3.2%
Interest Cover = 4.6X
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
FirstReit 3QFY2015
Revenue = $25.288m
NPI = $25.044m
Distributable Income = $15.604m
DPU = 2.08 cents (3QFY2014 2.02 cents)
Total Debt = $398m
Gearing = 32.9%
NAV = 102.02 cents
NPI = $25.044m
Distributable Income = $15.604m
DPU = 2.08 cents (3QFY2014 2.02 cents)
Total Debt = $398m
Gearing = 32.9%
NAV = 102.02 cents
Monday, September 28, 2015
Minister for Haze Prevention???
PM has just released the lineup for his new cabinet. Someone calculated that the new cabinet will cost up to $50m a year excluding bonuses which can up to the max of 18 months.
there are even the new structure of three senior coordinating ministers to take a bird eye view of and resolving inter-ministerial issues. however, I think we are missing something. Looking at the current
impact of haze where the air quality is really very bad or even hazardous, I think we new a full time
minister for haze that will work full time with the Indonesian to resolve this issue once and for all for the benefit of the region. The economic impact cause by haze definitely much more than that to pay a full time minister to work on the issue.
otherwise with our current rotating chair system with ministerial appointments, the most serious environmental issue had been left unaddressed for almost twenty years and even deteriorated to
the scale and severity that are are seeing recently in 2013 and now.
there are even the new structure of three senior coordinating ministers to take a bird eye view of and resolving inter-ministerial issues. however, I think we are missing something. Looking at the current
impact of haze where the air quality is really very bad or even hazardous, I think we new a full time
minister for haze that will work full time with the Indonesian to resolve this issue once and for all for the benefit of the region. The economic impact cause by haze definitely much more than that to pay a full time minister to work on the issue.
otherwise with our current rotating chair system with ministerial appointments, the most serious environmental issue had been left unaddressed for almost twenty years and even deteriorated to
the scale and severity that are are seeing recently in 2013 and now.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
CDL Trust 2QFY2015
NPI $31,621,000
Income Available For Dist $24,602,000
DPU 2.25 cents
Occupany 86.5%
ARR $200
RevPAR $173
Debt $775m
Gearing 32.0%
Interest Cover 6.8X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.7%
NAV $1.6185
Income Available For Dist $24,602,000
DPU 2.25 cents
Occupany 86.5%
ARR $200
RevPAR $173
Debt $775m
Gearing 32.0%
Interest Cover 6.8X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.7%
NAV $1.6185
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
StarHillGlobal 6QFY2014/2015
Revenue $51.8m
NPI $41.3m
Income Available For Dist $29.5m
DPU 1.29 cents
Total Debt $1,135m
Gearing 25.5%
Interest Cover 4.8X
Average Interest Rate 3.19%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 73%
NAV 90 cents
NPI $41.3m
Income Available For Dist $29.5m
DPU 1.29 cents
Total Debt $1,135m
Gearing 25.5%
Interest Cover 4.8X
Average Interest Rate 3.19%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 73%
NAV 90 cents
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
CRCT 2QFY2015
Gross Revenue RMB 249,601,000
NPI RMB 165,780,000
NPI $ 36,039,000
Distributable Income $ 22,936,000
DPU 2.73 cents (2.59 cents for 2QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.65
Gearing 27.7%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.98%
Unencumbered Assets 96.3%
NPI RMB 165,780,000
NPI $ 36,039,000
Distributable Income $ 22,936,000
DPU 2.73 cents (2.59 cents for 2QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.65
Gearing 27.7%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.98%
Unencumbered Assets 96.3%
Friday, July 24, 2015
AscendasIndia 1QFY15/16
Total Property Income = Rupee 1,607m
NPI = Rupee 1,035m
Income Available For Dist = $14.1m
DPU = 1.37 cents
NAV = 68 cents
Interest Cover = 4.5
Gearing = 26%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 6.8%
Effective Borrowings = $323m (INR:71%,SGD:29%)
INR:SGD (47.0:1)
NPI = Rupee 1,035m
Income Available For Dist = $14.1m
DPU = 1.37 cents
NAV = 68 cents
Interest Cover = 4.5
Gearing = 26%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 6.8%
Effective Borrowings = $323m (INR:71%,SGD:29%)
INR:SGD (47.0:1)
Thursday, July 23, 2015
SATS 1QFY15/16
Revenue $416.9m
(Food Solution $241.1m
Gateway Services $174.7m
Corporate $1.1m)
Operating Profit $44.0m
Share Of Associates $12.8m
PATMI $49.6m
EPS 4.5 cents
NAV $1.34
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
(Food Solution $241.1m
Gateway Services $174.7m
Corporate $1.1m)
Operating Profit $44.0m
Share Of Associates $12.8m
PATMI $49.6m
EPS 4.5 cents
NAV $1.34
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
SuntecReit 2QFY2015
Gross Revenue = $81.4m
NPI = $56.9m
Distributable Income = $62.9m
DPU = 2.5 cents
Total Liabilities = $3281m
Gearing = 35.3%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.70%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.2X
Adjusted NAV = $2.076
NPI = $56.9m
Distributable Income = $62.9m
DPU = 2.5 cents
Total Liabilities = $3281m
Gearing = 35.3%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.70%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.2X
Adjusted NAV = $2.076
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
SPH Invest in Qoo10!
Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) is the lead investor in a group that has stumped up US$82.1 million (S$112 million) to help e-commerce site Qoo10 expand further across the region.
The other investors include eBay, Saban Capital Group, UVM 2 Venture Investments LP, Brookside Capital and Oak Investment Partners, Qoo10 said in a statement yesterday.
Qoo10's parent company, Giosis, will use the capital to deve-lop technology and infrastructure while also enhancing its services and talent base
The other investors include eBay, Saban Capital Group, UVM 2 Venture Investments LP, Brookside Capital and Oak Investment Partners, Qoo10 said in a statement yesterday.
Qoo10's parent company, Giosis, will use the capital to deve-lop technology and infrastructure while also enhancing its services and talent base
HPHT 2QFY2015
Revenue HK$ 3127.0m
PBT HK$ 887.2m
PAT HK$ 695m
PAT Attribtable to HPH shareholders HK$ 399.9m
Net Assets HK$ 62,162.2m
Cash & Cash Equiv HK$ 7294,6m
Long Term Debt HK$ 32,905,4m
Interim DPU for 2015 15.7 HK cents
Monday, July 20, 2015
First Reit Investment Trust 2QFY2015
Revenue = $25.0m
NPI = $24.6m
Distributable Income = $15.4m
DPU = 2.07 cents (1HFy2015 4.13 cents)
Total Debt = $401.6m
Gearing = 32.9%
NAV = 101.94 cents
NPI = $24.6m
Distributable Income = $15.4m
DPU = 2.07 cents (1HFy2015 4.13 cents)
Total Debt = $401.6m
Gearing = 32.9%
NAV = 101.94 cents
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
SoliBuild 2QFY2014
Gross Revenue = $19,590K
NPI = $14,304K
Distributable Income = $14,304K
DPU = 1.615 cents
NAV = 79 cents
Leverage = 36.3%
Average All-In Interest Ratio = 3.49%
Interest Cover = 4.6X
NPI = $14,304K
Distributable Income = $14,304K
DPU = 1.615 cents
NAV = 79 cents
Leverage = 36.3%
Average All-In Interest Ratio = 3.49%
Interest Cover = 4.6X
Monday, July 13, 2015
NO Grexit!
Eurozone leaders have reached a "unanimous" agreement after marathon talks over a third bailout for Greece, EU President Donald Tusk has said.
He said that a bailout programme was "all ready to go" for Greece, "with serious reforms and financial support"."There will not be a 'Grexit'," said European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker, referring to the fear that Greece would have to leave the euro.
Greece is expected to pass reforms demanded by the eurozone by Wednesday
Monday, June 29, 2015
OUE COM Reit Rights Issue
OUE COM Reit proposes an acquisition of an indirect interest of One Raffles Places through the acquisition of between 75% to 83.33% of OUB Centre Limited from OUE Ltd (the sponsor).Valuation of OUBC interest is at around $1734m from two independent valuers.Funding of the acquisition is a mixture of voluntary rights ($218.3m), CPPU ($500m to $550m) and debt($333.3m to $399.3m). The 9-for-20 rights issue at $0.555 will result in a TERP of $0.731 per share based on yesterday closing price of $0.81.The CPPU will be issued to the Sponsor for an annual coupon of 1% per year with a restriction period of 4 years.The CPPU will be classified as equity with a conversion price of $0.841 with no more than one third of the CPPU initially issued can be converted in any one year. This represent a 15% discount over the TERP.Assuming a 75% indirect interest, leverage will be at 40.9% of the enlarged portfolio.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
GrexIt - Why No Panic this time????
Why markets seems not reacting violently to impending Grexit???The answer may lie in the below article I read from somewhere.
"Years ago, back when the Greek debt crisis and attendant political machinations in the Eurozone first hit the headlines, the media was full of people screaming at you to pay attention to arcane fiscal disputes in far-off European capitols. And they were right. At the time, there was a serious risk of financial contagion from Greece to other European countries that could have lead to the collapse of the Eurozone and all kinds of wild consequences for global banking, the world economy, and other big, important things.
Now Greece's debt woes are back in the headlines, and if you want to get caught up, we've got you covered. But if you don't want to get caught up, that's okay! There's a big difference between this round of Greek drama and the previous one. This time it's really not that important. You don't have to pay attention.
Basically, if Greece cannot work out a new deal with the people to whom it owes money (primarily the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and various richer European nations), then Greek people are going to experience some (more) terrible economic pain.
Their country may leave the Eurozone, or the country may continue to formally use the euro but with Greek people unable to take their euros out of the country or exchange them for foreign money. Either way, the best-case scenario would be a healthy bout of inflation complete with lost savings and reduced incomes for pensioners and public employees followed by a reduction in the unemployment rate. The worst-case scenario would be the rapid breakdown of Greek politics and the further rise of the neofascist Golden Dawn political party.
Long story short — Greek people should pay attention to the Greece news.
That's not an accident, it's a consequence of the resolution of the last Greek crisis.
When that crisis happened, lots of Greek debt was owned by foreign banks. And lots of those banks also owned the debt of other European countries — notably Ireland, Portugal, and Spain — which had been hit by devastating recessions. This led to two big ways that Greece's crisis could become everyone's crisis:
But in the end, Greek politicians and German politicians worked out a bailout deal. Then the European Central Bank assured everyone that no country would be forced into default as long as it was playing by the austerity-minded rules of Eurozone elites. There was no contagion.
Naturally, Greek voters were angry about this. So they turned to an opposition political party — in this case the far-left Syriza — to lead them out of the abyss. And since January, Syriza has been asking for a better deal.
But Syriza has a problem. The old risk that a Greek meltdown would burn the entire Eurozone has gone away. Greece's debt is in the hands of European governments, which are using that debt as a means of political control to force Greece to change its policies, not as an investment. And the European Central Bank is fully backing Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, and Italian debt, since all four of those countries are sticking with the program. If Greece defaults, nothing terrible happens to the rest of Europe. Syriza is playing high-stakes poker, but it has no cards, and everyone else at the table knows it.
The reason is that the Eurozone is more of a political project than an economic one, and it's one that most of Europe's politicians believe in. If Greece were to leave the Eurozone, that would be a blow to the prestige of the project. Non-Greek politicians (and the voters they are accountable to) are not willing to pay a large price to avoid this outcome, but they are willing to pay something. Consequently, though Syriza isn't going to get anything close to what it promised Greece's voters, it really can get some kind of more generous deal.
This has left Europe in an endless cycle of negotiations that break up, only to return, only to break up again. If a deal is reached, it will be at the last minute, and it won't drastically alter the status quo. If a deal isn't reached, we won't know until the last minute, and it won't have big consequences for the rest of the rest of the world.
So if you're Greek, you really should be paying attention to this news. And if you're just interested in high-stakes economic stories, it's a fascinating, important story. "
"Years ago, back when the Greek debt crisis and attendant political machinations in the Eurozone first hit the headlines, the media was full of people screaming at you to pay attention to arcane fiscal disputes in far-off European capitols. And they were right. At the time, there was a serious risk of financial contagion from Greece to other European countries that could have lead to the collapse of the Eurozone and all kinds of wild consequences for global banking, the world economy, and other big, important things.
Now Greece's debt woes are back in the headlines, and if you want to get caught up, we've got you covered. But if you don't want to get caught up, that's okay! There's a big difference between this round of Greek drama and the previous one. This time it's really not that important. You don't have to pay attention.
The Greek crisis is very important for Greece
The crisis in Greece is very important for the nation of Greece. If you are Greek, if you live in Greece, if you have family in Greece, etc., this is very important.Basically, if Greece cannot work out a new deal with the people to whom it owes money (primarily the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and various richer European nations), then Greek people are going to experience some (more) terrible economic pain.
Their country may leave the Eurozone, or the country may continue to formally use the euro but with Greek people unable to take their euros out of the country or exchange them for foreign money. Either way, the best-case scenario would be a healthy bout of inflation complete with lost savings and reduced incomes for pensioners and public employees followed by a reduction in the unemployment rate. The worst-case scenario would be the rapid breakdown of Greek politics and the further rise of the neofascist Golden Dawn political party.
Long story short — Greek people should pay attention to the Greece news.
The previous Greek crisis was important for everyone
Note that list of people to whom Greece owes money. Those are governments and government-backed institutions, not banks and individual investors.That's not an accident, it's a consequence of the resolution of the last Greek crisis.
When that crisis happened, lots of Greek debt was owned by foreign banks. And lots of those banks also owned the debt of other European countries — notably Ireland, Portugal, and Spain — which had been hit by devastating recessions. This led to two big ways that Greece's crisis could become everyone's crisis:
- A Greek default could imperil the solvency of some foreign banks.
- A Greek default could lead people to anticipate defaults from other countries.
But in the end, Greek politicians and German politicians worked out a bailout deal. Then the European Central Bank assured everyone that no country would be forced into default as long as it was playing by the austerity-minded rules of Eurozone elites. There was no contagion.
Today, Greece is isolated
Greece is in crisis today because the deal the previous crop of Greek politicians worked out forced a steep fall in Greek living standards. The Greek government had to pursue a very austere fiscal policy, enact a series of unpopular changes to labor law, and, by staying in the Eurozone, was unable to use currency depreciation as a way of spurring job creation. As a result, Greece's unemployment rate has hovered at more than 20 percent for years.Naturally, Greek voters were angry about this. So they turned to an opposition political party — in this case the far-left Syriza — to lead them out of the abyss. And since January, Syriza has been asking for a better deal.
But Syriza has a problem. The old risk that a Greek meltdown would burn the entire Eurozone has gone away. Greece's debt is in the hands of European governments, which are using that debt as a means of political control to force Greece to change its policies, not as an investment. And the European Central Bank is fully backing Portuguese, Spanish, Irish, and Italian debt, since all four of those countries are sticking with the program. If Greece defaults, nothing terrible happens to the rest of Europe. Syriza is playing high-stakes poker, but it has no cards, and everyone else at the table knows it.
European elites care more than you'd think
This naturally raises the question of why the drama keeps happening at all. Why don't Greece's partners call the bluff and walk away from the table?The reason is that the Eurozone is more of a political project than an economic one, and it's one that most of Europe's politicians believe in. If Greece were to leave the Eurozone, that would be a blow to the prestige of the project. Non-Greek politicians (and the voters they are accountable to) are not willing to pay a large price to avoid this outcome, but they are willing to pay something. Consequently, though Syriza isn't going to get anything close to what it promised Greece's voters, it really can get some kind of more generous deal.
This has left Europe in an endless cycle of negotiations that break up, only to return, only to break up again. If a deal is reached, it will be at the last minute, and it won't drastically alter the status quo. If a deal isn't reached, we won't know until the last minute, and it won't have big consequences for the rest of the rest of the world.
So if you're Greek, you really should be paying attention to this news. And if you're just interested in high-stakes economic stories, it's a fascinating, important story. "
Monday, May 18, 2015
Kra Canal - Whither Singapore?
China and Thailand recently agreed in Guangzhou on a canal project through
the Kra Isthmus, the narrowest part of the Malay peninsula in southern Thailand,
which means the project, in the pipeline for years, may start construction soon,
according to the website of Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily.
The agreement follows on from efforts by China to hammer out the implementation of its New Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiatives, with the ongoing push to establish a China-Pakistan economic corridor and a Sino-Russia high-speed rail project. When the canal of over 100 kilometers in length opens, ships will be able to pass from the Gulf of Thailand in the Pacific directly into the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean, cutting down the current route by at least 1,200 kilometers, the website stated.
Guangzhou Agreement
At the research and investment cooperation talks in Guangzhou, China and Thailand signed a memorandum of understanding on the canal project, according to the website. The project, expected to begin construction soon, will likely take ten years to complete and will cost US$28 billion. The canal will mean that oil transport ships and merchant ships travelling from the Middle East to China will no longer have to pass through the Strait of Malacca.
The Strait of Malacca is a an important maritime passage and especially important for China's oil supply, as 80% of China's oil comes from the Middle East and Africa and 80% of this has to pass through the strait, where pirates pose a constant threat to China's oil supply.
Liang Yunxiang, a professor at the School of International Studies of Peking University told the website that the memorandum of understanding suggests that China is going to be the main driver behind the opening of the canal, which has important political and strategic significance. Liang said the project will help strengthen China's cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Area at the same time as ridding itself of its reliance on the Strait of Malacca. It will also cut short the route ships have to take, cutting the time taken by two to five days and consequently reduce costs and boost the development of ports in Hong Kong and the mainland. Liang said, however, that there are also political risks to the project, as it is subject to the political climate of countries in Southeast Asia and US-Thai relations.
Another motive behind the project is China's fear that the US could blockade the Strait of Malacca, cutting off the country's oil supply, according to the website.
Macau-based military analyst Huang Dong said that the canal will also improve the PLA Navy's ability to react to international incidents. The PLA Navy recently evacuated citizens of several countries from Yemen, for example, after the civil war there escalated.
Li Zhenfu, a professor at Dalian Maritime University, stated said that as Chinese companies will participate in the project, China will likely be granted some level of authority over the canal and may even be able to negotiate to refuse passage through the canal to warships from certain countries, increasing China's influence in Southeast Asia.
The idea for the canal, which will be the largest in Asia on its completion, is said to have first emerged in the 17th century and over 100 years ago it was formally proposed by Chulalongkorn, king of Siam. The costs were too much for Siam to bear, however, and the project was later delayed by the two world wars of the 20th century.
The current proposal is for a two-way 25 m deep canal measuring 102 km in length and 400 m wide. The Panama Canal is only 15 m deep and it measures only 304 m at its widest point.
The agreement follows on from efforts by China to hammer out the implementation of its New Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiatives, with the ongoing push to establish a China-Pakistan economic corridor and a Sino-Russia high-speed rail project. When the canal of over 100 kilometers in length opens, ships will be able to pass from the Gulf of Thailand in the Pacific directly into the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean, cutting down the current route by at least 1,200 kilometers, the website stated.
Guangzhou Agreement
At the research and investment cooperation talks in Guangzhou, China and Thailand signed a memorandum of understanding on the canal project, according to the website. The project, expected to begin construction soon, will likely take ten years to complete and will cost US$28 billion. The canal will mean that oil transport ships and merchant ships travelling from the Middle East to China will no longer have to pass through the Strait of Malacca.
The Strait of Malacca is a an important maritime passage and especially important for China's oil supply, as 80% of China's oil comes from the Middle East and Africa and 80% of this has to pass through the strait, where pirates pose a constant threat to China's oil supply.
Liang Yunxiang, a professor at the School of International Studies of Peking University told the website that the memorandum of understanding suggests that China is going to be the main driver behind the opening of the canal, which has important political and strategic significance. Liang said the project will help strengthen China's cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Area at the same time as ridding itself of its reliance on the Strait of Malacca. It will also cut short the route ships have to take, cutting the time taken by two to five days and consequently reduce costs and boost the development of ports in Hong Kong and the mainland. Liang said, however, that there are also political risks to the project, as it is subject to the political climate of countries in Southeast Asia and US-Thai relations.
Another motive behind the project is China's fear that the US could blockade the Strait of Malacca, cutting off the country's oil supply, according to the website.
Macau-based military analyst Huang Dong said that the canal will also improve the PLA Navy's ability to react to international incidents. The PLA Navy recently evacuated citizens of several countries from Yemen, for example, after the civil war there escalated.
Li Zhenfu, a professor at Dalian Maritime University, stated said that as Chinese companies will participate in the project, China will likely be granted some level of authority over the canal and may even be able to negotiate to refuse passage through the canal to warships from certain countries, increasing China's influence in Southeast Asia.
The idea for the canal, which will be the largest in Asia on its completion, is said to have first emerged in the 17th century and over 100 years ago it was formally proposed by Chulalongkorn, king of Siam. The costs were too much for Siam to bear, however, and the project was later delayed by the two world wars of the 20th century.
The current proposal is for a two-way 25 m deep canal measuring 102 km in length and 400 m wide. The Panama Canal is only 15 m deep and it measures only 304 m at its widest point.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
SATS 4QFY2014
Revenue $425m
(Food Solution $250.9m
Gateway Services $173m
Corporate $1.2m)
Operating Profit $44.7m
Share Of Associates $13.1m
PATMI $51.6m
EPS 4.7 cents
NAV $1.3
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
DPU 9 cents
With a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.07, SATs is one of the least leverage counter I have in my portfolio.It is generating a quarterly EPS higher than SIA Engineering at a 75% share price.
(Food Solution $250.9m
Gateway Services $173m
Corporate $1.2m)
Operating Profit $44.7m
Share Of Associates $13.1m
PATMI $51.6m
EPS 4.7 cents
NAV $1.3
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07
DPU 9 cents
With a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.07, SATs is one of the least leverage counter I have in my portfolio.It is generating a quarterly EPS higher than SIA Engineering at a 75% share price.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
APTT 1QFY2015
Subscribers
Basic Cable TV 756K (ARPU: NT$ 537)
Premium Digital TV 136K (ARPU: NT$188)
Broadband 185K (ARPU: NT$526)
Revenue $82,292,000
EBITDA $48,663,000 (EBITDA Margin: 59.1%)
Gearing 44%
Interest Cover Greater than 4
NAV 90 cents
Thursday, May 7, 2015
LMIR 1QFY2015
Revenue = $41,203,000
NPI = $39,026,000
Distributable Income = $21,501,000
DPU = 0.79 cents
NAV = 42 cents
Gearing = 31.6%
NPI = $39,026,000
Distributable Income = $21,501,000
DPU = 0.79 cents
NAV = 42 cents
Gearing = 31.6%
SembCorp Industries 1QFY2015
Revenue = $2,338m
Profit From Ops = $254m
Net Profit = $142m
EPS = 7.8 cents
DPU = NA
ROE = 9.7%
Interest Cover = 9.7X
NAV = $3.31
Utilities contribute $74.5m net profit whereby $30.9m came from Singapore. The breakdown of the $30.9m are as follows Energy ($12.2m), Water ($8.9m) and Onsite Logistics & Solid Waste ($9.8m).
Profit From Ops = $254m
Net Profit = $142m
EPS = 7.8 cents
DPU = NA
ROE = 9.7%
Interest Cover = 9.7X
NAV = $3.31
Utilities contribute $74.5m net profit whereby $30.9m came from Singapore. The breakdown of the $30.9m are as follows Energy ($12.2m), Water ($8.9m) and Onsite Logistics & Solid Waste ($9.8m).
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
OUE Comm Reit 1QFY2015
Gross Revenue $20.4m
NPI $15.7m
Amount Available For Dist $12.6m
DPU 1.44 cents
Total Assets $1,706,241m
Net Assets $964,252m
NAV $1.1
Leverage 38.6%
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.88%
Interest Service Ratio 3.9X
NPI $15.7m
Amount Available For Dist $12.6m
DPU 1.44 cents
Total Assets $1,706,241m
Net Assets $964,252m
NAV $1.1
Leverage 38.6%
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.88%
Interest Service Ratio 3.9X
Thursday, April 30, 2015
CDL Hospitality Trust 1QFY2015
NPI $34,497,000
Income Available For Dist $26,632,000
DPU 2.44 cents
Occupany 87.7%
ARR $197
RevPAR $173
Debt $786m
Gearing 32.3%
Interest Cover 7.5X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.7%
NAV $1.615
CDL Hospitality Trust currently faces headwind in Australia and NZ due to the soft Aussie economy and currency depreciation vis-Ã -vis the SG$.Singapore market also show little growth. The only upside is that the two newly acquired Japanese Hotels will help lift DPU from Q4FY2015 onwards.
Income Available For Dist $26,632,000
DPU 2.44 cents
Occupany 87.7%
ARR $197
RevPAR $173
Debt $786m
Gearing 32.3%
Interest Cover 7.5X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt 2.7%
NAV $1.615
CDL Hospitality Trust currently faces headwind in Australia and NZ due to the soft Aussie economy and currency depreciation vis-Ã -vis the SG$.Singapore market also show little growth. The only upside is that the two newly acquired Japanese Hotels will help lift DPU from Q4FY2015 onwards.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
StarHillGlobal 5QFY2014/15
Revenue $47.9m
NPI $38.9m
Income Available For Dist $28.4m
DPU 1.26 cents
Total Debt $847m
Gearing 28.7%
Interest Cover 5.4X
Average Interest Rate 3.13%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 80%
NAV 93 cents
NPI $38.9m
Income Available For Dist $28.4m
DPU 1.26 cents
Total Debt $847m
Gearing 28.7%
Interest Cover 5.4X
Average Interest Rate 3.13%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio 80%
NAV 93 cents
AscendasIndia Trust 4QFY14/15
Total Property Income = Rupee 1,518m
NPI = Rupee 948m
Income Available For Dist = $13.3m
DPU = 1.30 cents
NAV = 68 cents
Interest Cover = 4.2
Gearing = 25%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 6.7%
Effective Borrowings = $312m (INR:67%,SGD:33%)
INR:SGD (45.2:1)
NPI = Rupee 948m
Income Available For Dist = $13.3m
DPU = 1.30 cents
NAV = 68 cents
Interest Cover = 4.2
Gearing = 25%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt = 6.7%
Effective Borrowings = $312m (INR:67%,SGD:33%)
INR:SGD (45.2:1)
Monday, April 27, 2015
HPH 1QFY2015
Revenue HK$ 2948.5m
Operating Profit HK$ 823.5m
Loss/Profit to Unitholders HK$ 285.8m
EPS 3.28 HK cents
Cash & Cash Equiv HK$6895.5m
NAV HK$ 4.90
Operating Profit HK$ 823.5m
Loss/Profit to Unitholders HK$ 285.8m
EPS 3.28 HK cents
Cash & Cash Equiv HK$6895.5m
NAV HK$ 4.90
Sunday, April 26, 2015
DBS 1QFY2015
Some Statistics from 1QFY2015
EPS $1.87
Net Book Value $15.30
NIM 1.69
Cost Income Ratio 43.2%
Non-Interest Income/Total 38.2%
ROA 1.02
ROE 12.2
LDR 86.5
NPL 0.9
SP 22 basis points
Tier 1 Capital 13.4
Total Capital 15.3
Friday, April 24, 2015
CapitalRetail China Trsut 1QFY2015
Gross Revenue RMB 250,354,000
NPI RMB 158,578,000
NPI $ 34,548,000
Distributable Income $ 22,181,000
DPU 2.64 cents (2.40 cents for 1QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.62
Gearing 28.6%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.99%
Unencumbered Assets 96.1%
NPI RMB 158,578,000
NPI $ 34,548,000
Distributable Income $ 22,181,000
DPU 2.64 cents (2.40 cents for 1QFY14)
NAV (adjusted for dist) $ 1.62
Gearing 28.6%
Interest Cover 6.4
Avg Cost Of Debt 2.99%
Unencumbered Assets 96.1%
Thursday, April 23, 2015
SuntecReit 1QFY2015
Gross Revenue = $74.5m
NPI = $51.4m
Distributable Income = $56m
DPU = 2.23 cents
Gearing = 34.8%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.53%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.4X
Adjusted NAV = $2.085
NPI = $51.4m
Distributable Income = $56m
DPU = 2.23 cents
Gearing = 34.8%
All-In-Financing-Cost = 2.53%
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.4X
Adjusted NAV = $2.085
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
SoilBuid Business Trust - Private Placement
Soilbuid Business Trust executed a private placement yesterday for 111,800,000 shares at a price of
$0.805 cents per share. The gross proceeds amount to $90m including the upsize option.The exercise price is at a discount of 2.8% to the VWAP for the full trading day on 22th April which seems reasonable.
Abou $88.4m of the proceeds will go to partially fund the purchase of 72, Loyang Way and $1.6m will go to pay the estimated expenses incurred in this private placement.Aggregate leverage based on pro forma basis will be marginally reduced to 36.1% from 38.5%.
$0.805 cents per share. The gross proceeds amount to $90m including the upsize option.The exercise price is at a discount of 2.8% to the VWAP for the full trading day on 22th April which seems reasonable.
Abou $88.4m of the proceeds will go to partially fund the purchase of 72, Loyang Way and $1.6m will go to pay the estimated expenses incurred in this private placement.Aggregate leverage based on pro forma basis will be marginally reduced to 36.1% from 38.5%.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
FirstReit 2QFy2015
Revenue = $24.7m
NPI = $24.3m
Distributable Income = $15.2m
DPU = 2.06 cents (8.05 cents annualized)
Total Debt = $397.6m
Gearing = 33.1%
NAV = 101.94 cents
NPI = $24.3m
Distributable Income = $15.2m
DPU = 2.06 cents (8.05 cents annualized)
Total Debt = $397.6m
Gearing = 33.1%
NAV = 101.94 cents
Sunday, March 22, 2015
LKY = Closing Of An Era
Today in the wee hours of the morning, the first former PM of Singapore Mr Lee Kuan Yew passed away peacefully at SGH. With his demise, this also mark the end of an era of modern Singapore history.Together with Goh Keng Swee, Toh Chin Chye, S Rajaratnam and others, they single-handedly build a tiny red dot to a modern day nation.Rest In Peace, Sir.
Monday, March 9, 2015
Genting Singapore PLC
I am beginning to see value in this counter.Trailing PE is around 22 and P/B is approximately 1.5.Currently the business still generate more than a $1b of cash flow per year and net debt is low. There is a credit risk with VIP segment has evidenced from the larger provision in last quarter results but I expect management to tighten its credit profile.There is a new hotel coming up in Jurong which will help to drive its mass market segment. All in now, the share is now trading at its 5 year low and management has kick start its buy back programme with 6m shares just bought in yesterday through its buy back programme.It is hard to see value in a lot of counters nowadays but I decided to take the plunge on this one.Although there are casinos coming all over in asia but Genting Singapore is in Jeju and will have a good chance in Japan if regulation goes through.In terms of accessibility, Genting Singapore still command a premium over many casinos in asia.Macau may be more attractive but Chinese gamblers may be more caution over there as it is in the PRC jurisdiction.I made my bet and vested at 0.935 cents.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
OLAM US$750 6.75%B180129
I received my cheque for the above for a sum of US$6512.63 today for the above. I bought 6300 units of the 6.75% bond at a discount of 5% during the initial issue.The exchange rate then of about 1.20 plus between SG$ and US$. That was two years ago in the midst of Muddy Waters attack on Olam. Probably in a crisis would you be able to get such a deal. It has been a rewarding investment as I have gotten two years of dividends plus the gain in exchange rate. The bond was redeemed at 103.375% compared to the 95% entry price I had. I had intended to hold this till maturity but I guess olam find it onerous to continue due to the sharp appreciation of the US$. No regrets and will redeploy the funds when I find something appropriate.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
I Sold SingPost
I finally decided to sell SingPost after holding it for more than 4 years.I bought it at around $1.15 and have collected 6.25 cents annually these 4 years. As it is, the current price of around $1.98 does not commensurate with its earnings of about 7 cents per annum.Despite all the hype surrounding Alibaba injection of capital into SingPost, we must remember that SingPost is actually not doing ecommerce directly but more the grunt work of delivering ecommerce parcels.Alibaba do not even want to do the logistics portion in China as it is high cost and low margin.I have watch SingPost performance over the last few years and it seems that the net EPS is fairly stagnant despite the transformation underway. The net increase in logistics EPS is barely keeping up with the fall in core business EPS.Right now, PE ratio is about 28 is which pretty high with low NAV value.SingPost Mall is outdated and relatively uncompetitive, to upgrade to compete, capital will need to be spent for AEI.All in all, I reckon it is better to redeploy my fund invested into SingPost into areas of higher returns.
Friday, February 27, 2015
China Merchant Pacific FY2014
Revenue = HK$ 2019m
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders = HK$ 739m
Net Assets = HK$ 8930m
Net Borrowings = HK$ 3198m
Net Gearing = 0.36
EPS = 69.80 HK cents
NAV = HK$ 6.10
ROA = 6.8
ROE = 11.6
FCF = HK$ 1705
DPU = 3.5 SG cents (2HFY14)
CMPF proposed a bonus shares issued of 20:1 in addition to the 3.5 SG cents for FY2014.Based on CMPF FCF, it can quite comfortably handle the net borrowings.I am reasonably happy with this counter as I have held it for more than 4 years.
Monday, February 23, 2015
APTT 4QFY2014
Subscribers ARPU
Basic Cable TV 756K (755K 2013) NT$537 (537 2013)
Premium Digital TV 133K(123K 2013) NT$195 (207 2013)
Broadband 183K(180K 2013) NT$525 (543 2013)
Revenue $81,846K
EBITDA $48,900K
Net Assets $1,275,827K
DPU 2.13 cents (Guided 8,25 cents for 2015)
Gearing 43.2%
NAV 89 cents
Interest Cover greater than 4
Despite all the naysaying that I read in various forums that was surrounding this counter, I got in at around 75 cents after it went down after IPO and has been collecting dividends ever since.Give myself a pat on the back for this one, at least up to till now.
Basic Cable TV 756K (755K 2013) NT$537 (537 2013)
Premium Digital TV 133K(123K 2013) NT$195 (207 2013)
Broadband 183K(180K 2013) NT$525 (543 2013)
Revenue $81,846K
EBITDA $48,900K
Net Assets $1,275,827K
DPU 2.13 cents (Guided 8,25 cents for 2015)
Gearing 43.2%
NAV 89 cents
Interest Cover greater than 4
Despite all the naysaying that I read in various forums that was surrounding this counter, I got in at around 75 cents after it went down after IPO and has been collecting dividends ever since.Give myself a pat on the back for this one, at least up to till now.
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