Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Ascott Reit 2QFY2017

Revenue                                    $123.6m
Gross Profit                               $59m
Unitholders Distribution           $46.9m
DPU                                          1.84 cents
RevPAU                                    $146
Gearing                                      32.4%
Interest Cover                            4.4X
Effective Interest rate                2.4%
Percentage Of Fixed Debts        85%
NAV                                           $1.23
Weighted Avg Debt to Maturity 4.8 years

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

SPH - M1 Strategic Review

The Company wishes to announce that Axiata Group Berhad, Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd and the Company (collectively, the “Majority Shareholders”) have decided not to proceed further with the Strategic Review. The Majority Shareholders have taken into consideration the proposals from interested parties, which despite a favourable level of interest, have not met the minimum criteria and parameters as determined by the Majority Shareholders. For the avoidance of doubt, no arrangement or agreement with any third party has been reached in relation to each Majority Shareholders’ respective shareholdings in M1 Limited.    

KeppelReit 2QFY2017

Property Income                    $39.846m
NPI                                        $31.892m
Shr of Associates&JV           $28,298m
Income Available for Dist    $47.406m
DPU                                      1.48 cents
NAV                                     $1.40
Gearing                                 38.5%
Interest Coverage Ratio        4.4
All-in Interest rate                 2.59%
Top Ten Tenants WALE      14 years
Portfolio WALE                   9 years

Monday, July 17, 2017

FirstReit 2QFY2017

Revenue                             = $27,477m
NPI                                    = $27,154m
Distributable Income         = $16.642m
DPU                                   = 2.14 cents (2QFY2016 2.11 cents)
Total Debt                          = $416m
Gearing                               = 31.0%
NAV                                   = 100.41cents

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

SPH Turn Property Developer?

Singapore, 21 June 2017 – The consortium formed by Singapore Press Holdings Limited (“SPH”) and Kajima Development Pte Ltd (“Kajima”) has been awarded the tender for a 99 year leasehold mixed commercial and residential site at Upper Serangoon Road by HDB.  It submitted the highest bid of S$1.132b for the land size of approximately 25,440.8 sqm.  The two consortium partners will take equal stakes in the joint venture. 

The mixed commercial and residential site, which comes with an air space for a commercial bridge across Bidadari Park Drive towards Bidadari Park and a subterranean space for an underpass to the bus interchange in Woodleigh Village BTO, is next to Woodleigh MRT station.  It forms part of the new Bidadari Estate, a new housing estate at the fringe of the city centre, and envisioned to be a “community in a garden”.  The Bidadari estate will encompass a green environment with a garden setting and the site overlooks the Alkaff Lake, Bidadari Park and Bidadari Heritage Walk. 

Popular primary schools such as Maris Stella High School and St Andrew’s Junior School, as well as the Stamford American International School and Australian International School, are also close by. 

The consortium plans to develop over 600 residential units with a retail/commercial component of ~310,000sf gross floor area.  As stated in the tender conditions, the successful bidder will also have to build a 6,000 sqm Community Club (CC), a 2,190 sqm Neighbourhood Police Centre (NPC), a commercial bridge towards Bidadari Park and an underpass to connect to the bus interchange as part of the development.

In view of the positive attributes of the site, the consortium believes that there will be demand for residential units in the project.  The HDB Bidadari BTO flat launches have been very well received and continue to see high demand among potential homebuyers. 

The consortium believes that the residents in the vicinity and the students from the schools nearby will provide a ready catchment for the upcoming retail/commercial development. The consortium will also bring in new ideas from Japan for this development.

Monday, May 15, 2017

I Finally bet on Noble!


I finally gather enough interest and guts to place a small bet on Noble. I bought 10lots at 60.5 cents a share yesterday. I have previously made a quick trade with Noble years ago and made some small profit. After which I have not touch it but it remains in my radar out of curiosity as it amazes me how a company can collapse so quickly.It make for good case study.

I am going into this with my eyes wide open and totally cognizant of the prospects that there is a reasonable probability that is  company going into chapter 11 in the near future. The next few quarters are critical.

Why do I made such a risky bet albeit a small amount? Firstly, as I read the out going chiarman and founder letter to the media, I got this impression that he is making one final bid to save the company he has so paintakingly built over the last thirty years.He is stepping aside for a new chairman is who is old hand in extracting value out of companies at risk of failing.Elman is a proud man but the last two years of trials and tribulations hace exacted a deep toll on the man and he has come to terms with acknowledging the incipient risk of Noble very existence. The incoming chairman is not new to Noble as he has been in the board for the last two years or so so there will be no steep learning curve. He will be quick off the block.  Being a highly experienced and connected person, I do not think he will consent being the chairman if he think the company is going into bankruptcy in the near future.

Secondly, much of Noble recent woes stem from the fact that it did a consolidation of 10-1 of its shares and more significantly the current quarter unexpected loss of US$130m due to hedging risks of it coal portfolio.I gave no problem with the consolidation as I did not own any shares previously and I am of the opinion that it is positive as it remove some of the ease to short the stock.As for the hedging loss, I understand it is more a divergence of the Newcastle index where the hedges are reference with the chinese index.It appears to me more like a unforseen distortion (probably manipulated by hedge funds) which can be corrected BUT I may be wrong.

I look at the factsheet and Noble now mostly have current assets viz-a-viz non-current assets in line with it vision to drive the company back to its roots as a smaller and nimbler trading company. According to the factsheet, it has an equity of US$3.8b on 1.3b outstanding shares. Work out to be about $3/share and about a p/b ratio of 0.2 (based on my purchased price). Of course I have read many comments online that all these figures are fluff and the company now really has nothing left in its equity.I do not object to such opinion based on Noble track record over the last 2-3 years.There may be  a grain of truth in what these naysayers are saying.

At the end of the day, there is no certainty in investing especially with one like Noble but I am betting against the chance that a once blue chip company with a valuation in excess of $10b can be reduced to nothing. 烂船也有三斤铁

I hope I am not wrong but I am prepared to lose my capital on this one.


Friday, May 5, 2017

OUE Comm Reit 1QFY2017

Revenue                          $44,816K
NPI                                  $34,642K
Amount Avail For Dist   $16,642K
DPU                                1.23 cents
NAV                                86 cents
Gearing                            36.2%
Total Debt                       $1145m
Avg Cost Of Debt            3.4%
Avg Term Of Debt           3.3 years
Interest Cover                   3.2 years