Wednesday, July 30, 2014

SoilBuild 2QFY2014

Revenue                                 = $16,708,000
NPI                                         = $14,042,000
Distributable Income              = $12,134,000
DPU                                        = 1.5 cents
Borrowings                              = $295m
NAV                                        = 80 cents
Aggregate Leverage                = 30.3%
All-In Interest Rate                  = 3.08%
Interest Cover                          = 5.4
Weighted Avg Debt Maturity  = 2.0 years
S&P Ratings                            = BBB-

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

StarHillGlobal 2QFY2014

Gross Revenue                            = $48.4m
NPI                                             = $39.2m
DPU Available For Distribution   = $26.9m
DPU                                           = 1.25 cents
Total Debt                                   = $870m
Gearing                                       = 29.4%
Interest Cover                             = 5.0
Avg Interest Rate                        = 3.22%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio        = 79%
Avg Debt To Maturity               = 3.2 years
NAV (Adjusted)                          = $0.92 cents
Total Assets                               = $2,962,787,000
Total Liabilities                          = $949,585,000
Net Assets                                 = $2,013,202,000
Free Float                                  = 55% (exclude YTL &AI

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Food For Thought - Black Swan Event

Two years ago, we were all going about our daily business, blissfully unaware that our planet almost plunged into global catastrophe.
A recent revelation by NASA explains how on July 23, 2012, Earth had a near miss with a solar flare, or coronal mass ejection (CME), from the most powerful storm on the sun in over 150 years, but nobody decided to mention it.

The power of this ejection would have raced across space to knock us back to the Dark Ages. It’s believed a direct CME hit would have the potential to wipe out communication networks, GPS and electrical grids to cause widespread blackout. The article goes on to say it would disable “everything that plugs into a wall socket. Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.”
Just 10 minutes without electricity, Internet or communication across the globe is a scary thought, and the effects of this event could last years. It would be chaos and disaster on an epic scale.
“According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina.

So can we breathe a worldwide sigh of relief? Well, not quite. Physicist Pete Riley, who published a paper titled “On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,” has calculated the odds of a solar storm strong enough to disrupt our lives in the next 10 years is 12 percent.

However, the CME that almost battered us was a bit of a freak occurrence as it was actually two ejections within 10 minutes of each other, plus a previous CME had happened four days earlier to effectively clear the path. Phew!!!!!

Friday, July 25, 2014

HPH Trust 2QFY2014

Revenue                                = HK$ 3063.0m
Operating Profit                     = HK$874.1m (decrease 8% yoy)
Profit Attrib to Shareholders = HK$ 368.4m (decrease 12% yoy)
EPS                                        = HK 4.23 cents
Net Assets                              = HK$ 85,513.8m
NAV                                       = HK$ 7.17
DPU                                        = HK 18.7 cents (1HFY2014)

Thursday, July 24, 2014

AscendasIndiaTrust 1QFY2014/2015

Total Property Income                          =  Rupee 1,520m
NPI                                                        =  Rupee 899m
Income Available For Dist                   =  $11.8m
DPU                                                      =  1.15 cents
NAV                                                      = 60 cents
Interest Cover                                         = 4.3
Gearing                                                   = 22% (taken acct of adjusted computation Gross Borrowing  +/- derivative financial instruments assets or liabilities)
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt                   = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt                            = 6.5%
Effective Borrowings                             = $233m

Currently at S$1 to INR 47.6. This is the first quarter after a long time where SGD depreciated against the INR compared to the previous quarter.I hope the decline in the INR has been arrested.


Revenue                         = $37,850m
NPI                                 = $31,334m
Debts/Asset Ratio          = 29.5%
Total Assets                   = $2,345m
Interest Cover                = 8.4
DPU                               = 5.25 cents (1HFY2014)

Singapore Hotels
Occupancy          86.1%
ARR                    $211
RevPAR              $181

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

CapitalRetail China Trust 2QFY2014

Revenue                                         = RMB 249,888,000
NPI                                                 = RMB 167,595,000
Income Available For Dist            =  $21,253,000
DPU                                               = 2.59 cents (2.38 cents for 2Q2013)
NAV                                               = $1.48 (net of dist)
Gearing                                           = 29.8%
Net Debt/EBITDA                          = 5.2
Interest Cover                                  = 5.5
Avg Term To Maturity                   = 2.32
Avg Cost Of Debt                           = 3.60%

Shoppers traffic up 5.5% and tenant sales' up 13.6% yoy. I expect performance to improve yoy as Minzhongleyuan was not contributing for 3QFY13 to 1QFY14 due to AEI works.I vested in this counter earlier this year or late last year at around $1.3 as the financial look decent to me at that time.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

SuntecReit 2QFY2014

Gross revenue                                  = $68.1m
Net Property Income                       = $46.1m
Income Available For Distribution  =$56.6m
DPU                                                  = 2.266 cents

Total Assets  =   $8,341m
Total Debts   =   $3,032m
Net Assets     =  $5,309m
NAV              = $2.069
EPS                = 1.242 cents

Outstanding Debt     = $2.878b
Debt-to-Asset Ratio = 34.1%
Interest Cover          = 4.3

Corporate Rating = "Baa2"
Average All-in Financing Cost  = 2.62%

SATS 1Q FY14/15

Revenue                                    = $435.2m
Operating Profit                        = $39.7m
PATMI                                     = $43.3m
Underlying Profit From Ops     = $43.4m
Underlying Net Margin             = 10%
PATMI Margin                         = 9.9%
Debt-to-Equity                          = 0.08
EPS                                           = 3.9 cents
NAV                                         = $1.30
Cash & Cash Equiv                   = $395.1m
FCF                                            = $31.1m

Key costs are Staff Costs ($203.9m) and Raw Materials (85.3m) . Share of after tax profits from associates/JV dropped 16.8% arising from lower cargo volumes.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Keppel Infra Trust 2QFY2014

Revenue                                        $16,430K
Net Profits                                     $3,341K
Net Assets                                     $604,942K
Cash & Cash Equiv                       $40,264K
EPS                                                0.53 cents
Adjusted NAV                               $0.93 (Adjusted)
DPU                                               3.13 cents

KReit 2QFY2014

Property Income                               = $47,346K
Net Property Income                        = $39,191K
Share Of Results Of Associates        = $14,244K
Income Available For Distribution   = $53,220K
DPS                                                    = 1.90 cents
All-In Interest Rate                            = 2.2%
Weighed Avg Term Of Expiry          = 3.6 years
Interest Cover                                     = 5.2
Percentage Fixed Of Debt                  = 67%
Total Borrowing                                 = $3,117m
NAV                                                   = $1.40
Aggregate Leverage                            = 42.8%

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Unrated Bonds

I like to ruminate about the above a little since during the recent CHC trial, one of the accused, Chew EH brought up the case of GIC investing in tencent,lenovo and Vanke unrated bonds to buttress his case that for CHC to invest (through an investment vehicle owned by Chew) in xtron unrated bonds is ok.

Now, all the three Chinese companies are big well known international names with a profitable business (at least at this point). their bonds may be unrated because they did not want to get a rating for a variety of reasons. But that does not necessarily mean that their bonds are very risky akin the junk bonds prevalent in the market place.Yes, there is risk (as with any investment) but at least they have profitable business and positive cashflow demonstrated over many years to back them up.

However, in xtron case, there is no valid business model, no profit, negative cashflow, almost no invested capital, few or  no fulltime employed personnel etc.

So the comparison is entirely inappropriate, in my view.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

SPH 3QFY2014

Operating Revenue                                        = $309,725,,000
(Newspaper & Magazine)                              = $239,532,000
(Properties)                                                     = $50,976,000
(Others)                                                          = $19,217,,000
Operating Profit                                             = $98,391,000
Profit After Taxation                                      = $89,632,000
Cash & Cash Equiv                                        = $660,283,000
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders         = $81,302,000
EPS                                                                = 6 cents
NAV                                                              = $2.17

Revenue for Newspapers & Magazine slide $19.7m (7.6%).Advertisement & Circulation revenues declined by $16.2m (8.2%) and $2.9m (5.8%) respectively.revenue from Property segment inched up $0.8m (1.6%).Other businesses grew by $3.7m(23.8%) led by online classified and radio business.

First Reit 2Q2014

NAV                              = 97.03 cents
DPU                               = 2 cents
Annualized DPU            = 8.05 cents
Total Assets                   = $1,142,819,000
Total Liability                = $442,730,000
Total Borrowing            = $375,800,000
Gearing                          = 32.9%
Gross Revenue               = $23m
Net Property Income      = $22.7m
Distributable Income       = $14.4m
Cash & Cash Equiv        = $28,070,000

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Germany vs Brazil 7-0 Now

I am totally stunned but absolutely delighted!

Monday, July 7, 2014

Investment Risk - EcoHouse

Just read in today ST that MAS has flagged Ecohouse under its MAS watchlist. Previously Shenton Holding etc was also flagged similarly. The recent action by MAS is triggered by some investors complaining that they could not get back their capital upon the maturity of their contract in the investment of some Brazilian low cost community housing development project. The deal was to promise 20% return per year on a fixed capital outlay over one year that was subsequently extended to three years.

According to the ST report today, EcoHouse said in a February interview: "We do not 'guarantee' the return. Nobody should. Our investment provides a fixed rate of return, paid upon the completion and sale of the property. The contractual worst-case scenario due to our escrow facility is that the investor ends up with land and property in Brazil worth more than they have paid."

I DO NOT think the above statement depict clearly the worst case scenario. Imagine the below:-

1) Brazilian property crash (highly likely after a mega event like world cup 2014), you will end up losing your capital

2) Brazilian currency get devaluated rapidly (think BRIC). Likely if you witness the rapid devaluation of rupees, rupiah recently. You will end up losing your capital.

3) The housing project may be left unfinished. You end up 'stuck' with something that you CANNOT get rid of event at a huge discount Again here you lose your capital.

4) You may incur huge cost if you will to get rid of the unsold project. In this case, you still lose your capital.

So, do not be comforted by such assurances that you have legal claim on the land and property should things turn out awry.

In general, DO NOT invest in something you cannot control or monitor at least transparently.In ecohouse case, they let investors take the risk, if they end up making money, you may get your 20% return. If something go awry, the investors will be left holding the hot potatoes.

Finally, if their low cost community housing project can be so profitable as to guarantee 20% return per annum, why they need to come half way around the globe to get your funding incurring substantial marketing expenses?????