Monday, May 15, 2017

I Finally bet on Noble!

I finally gather enough interest and guts to place a small bet on Noble. I bought 10lots at 60.5 cents a share yesterday. I have previously made a quick trade with Noble years ago and made some small profit. After which I have not touch it but it remains in my radar out of curiosity as it amazes me how a company can collapse so quickly.It make for good case study.

I am going into this with my eyes wide open and totally cognizant of the prospects that there is a reasonable probability that is  company going into chapter 11 in the near future. The next few quarters are critical.

Why do I made such a risky bet albeit a small amount? Firstly, as I read the out going chiarman and founder letter to the media, I got this impression that he is making one final bid to save the company he has so paintakingly built over the last thirty years.He is stepping aside for a new chairman is who is old hand in extracting value out of companies at risk of failing.Elman is a proud man but the last two years of trials and tribulations hace exacted a deep toll on the man and he has come to terms with acknowledging the incipient risk of Noble very existence. The incoming chairman is not new to Noble as he has been in the board for the last two years or so so there will be no steep learning curve. He will be quick off the block.  Being a highly experienced and connected person, I do not think he will consent being the chairman if he think the company is going into bankruptcy in the near future.

Secondly, much of Noble recent woes stem from the fact that it did a consolidation of 10-1 of its shares and more significantly the current quarter unexpected loss of US$130m due to hedging risks of it coal portfolio.I gave no problem with the consolidation as I did not own any shares previously and I am of the opinion that it is positive as it remove some of the ease to short the stock.As for the hedging loss, I understand it is more a divergence of the Newcastle index where the hedges are reference with the chinese index.It appears to me more like a unforseen distortion (probably manipulated by hedge funds) which can be corrected BUT I may be wrong.

I look at the factsheet and Noble now mostly have current assets viz-a-viz non-current assets in line with it vision to drive the company back to its roots as a smaller and nimbler trading company. According to the factsheet, it has an equity of US$3.8b on 1.3b outstanding shares. Work out to be about $3/share and about a p/b ratio of 0.2 (based on my purchased price). Of course I have read many comments online that all these figures are fluff and the company now really has nothing left in its equity.I do not object to such opinion based on Noble track record over the last 2-3 years.There may be  a grain of truth in what these naysayers are saying.

At the end of the day, there is no certainty in investing especially with one like Noble but I am betting against the chance that a once blue chip company with a valuation in excess of $10b can be reduced to nothing. 烂船也有三斤铁

I hope I am not wrong but I am prepared to lose my capital on this one.

Friday, May 5, 2017

OUE Comm Reit 1QFY2017

Revenue                          $44,816K
NPI                                  $34,642K
Amount Avail For Dist   $16,642K
DPU                                1.23 cents
NAV                                86 cents
Gearing                            36.2%
Total Debt                       $1145m
Avg Cost Of Debt            3.4%
Avg Term Of Debt           3.3 years
Interest Cover                   3.2 years

Thursday, May 4, 2017

CDL Htrust Acquire UK Hotel

Acquisition of a 5-star luxury hotel which is located in proximity to the heart of Manchester city centre 
Property price of £52.5 million with a net property income yield of 7.3% for FY 2016  DPS accretion of 2.7%
Rare opportunity to acquire an iconic hotel in Manchester and gain exposure to a key beneficiary city of the Northern Powerhouse proposal
Strengthens portfolio and earnings base through diversification

 The purchase consideration for the Acquisition is based on the property price of £52.5 million (approximately S$94.1 million)2, and payment of approximately £0.4 million (approximately S$0.7 million) based on the estimated net working capital and cash of the Target, as at the time of completion with the aggregate amount being approximately £52.9 million (approximately S$94.7 million). Upon completion, the aggregate leverage of CDLHT is expected to be approximately 39.1%18.

The Property is a purpose-built 5-star luxury hotel offering 165 rooms and a comprehensive suite of facilities. It is located in proximity to the heart of Manchester city centre, and approximately 16.0 km from Manchester Airport, United Kingdom’s (“UK”) best airport for the third year in a row by Globe Awards4. It is also within the vicinity of top office developments such as Spinningfields, prominent retail establishments such as Arndale Shopping Centre, one of the busiest retail malls in UK5, and entertainment hubs such as Royal Theatre Exchange, the Manchester Opera House and the Manchester Arena.


Revenue                                 = $48,487,000
NPI                                         = $46,079,000
Distributable Income             = $25,120,000
DPU                                       = 0.89 cents
NAV                                       = 37 cents
Gearing                                   = 32.2%
Occupancy                              = 93.8%
Total Debt                               = $650.7m

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Marco Polo Marine - Impending Collapse

I have written about Marco Polo before. Today, the company requested for a suspension of the company shares traded on the SGX in view that the restructuring of debt is not going on smoothly as there is resistance from some lenders.

I am of the opinion that this o&g counter will be the next to fall and taking the step of coming under judicial management is just a stone throw away. Equity holders will most likely get nothing.

not vested!