Friday, October 31, 2014

US Exit QE and Japan Launch QE?

The US Federal Reserve officially ended QE3 which virtually print new money out of thin air to purchase financial assets issued by major banks in Oct 2014. After the global financial crisis in 2008/2009, the Fed has been repeatedly trying to boost the US economy (thus employment rate) on a more optimal trajectory through a host of unorthodox measures including QE1, QE2 and the open ended QE3. The jury is still out whether the Fed exited Q3 too prematuredly.After injecting trillion of dollars in the system, inflation in the US hardly budge above 2%.This run counter to contemporary economic wisdom that you will get runaway inflation when the monetary authority pump in excessive amount of money into the economy.

In the same month, BOJ through a tight vote of 5-4 announced sort of a QE in Japan to boost the flagging economy after the consumption tax hike. BOJ will raised the monetary base by US$724b a year. on top of that the Government Pension investment Fund (GPIF) will raise the domestic allocation of stocks from the current 12% to 25%. Allocation for international equities will also go up. The Nikkei 225 reacted with an immediate more than 4% jump on the same day!.Part of the equation I think factor in the BOJ calculation is the unexpected low price of oil which will persist for a while. This give the BOJ some manoeuvre room to engage in greater power to fire up the animal spirits.

personally I see rates remain low in 2015 and even 2016 but I am no prophet. However, I recall that after 2008/1009 at around 2010, you could read numerous articles in NY Times, Economist etc project that rates will go up in 2012/2013 onwards.Retrospectively, all those articles written by "experts" were mostly off the mark.In my untrained view, the GPC dwarf all other financial crisis in modern times (expect the Great Depression of course) and will take a substantially long time to heal.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

DBS Bank 3QFY14 Results

A quick summary of the above.

Total Assets                       = $424,383m
Total Liabilities                 = $385,110m
Net Assets                          = $39,273m

It can be seen that banks are highly leverage business. In DBS case, it leverage approximately   $10 for every dollar of net asset.

Net Book Value                 =$14.36
Common Equity Tier 1      = 13.4%
ROE                                   = 11.2%
ROA                                   = 0.95
NPL  ratio                           = 0.9
Cost/Income Ratio              = 44.1
Loan/Deposit Ratio             = 85.8%
SP/Avg Loan (bp)               = 22

NPL                                   = $2,525m
Singapore                          = $414m
HongKong                         =$251m
Greater China                    =$318m
South & South East Asia  =$944m
ROW                                 =$98m

It can be seen that NPL for South & South East Asia is quite high relatively.

Customer Deposit (in Currency)
Singapore  $                         =$137,256m
US$                                      =$88,016m
HKG$                                  =$29,499m
Yuan                                    =$18,952m
ROW                                   =$31,529m

Customer Loan (in Geography)
Singapore                           =$125,145m
HongKong                          =$46,848m
South & South East Asia    =$23,573m
Rest Of Greater China        =$49.097m
ROW                                   =$20,538m

It can be seen that approximately half of the loans are outside Singapore. So, DBS would be a good proxy to bet on the Asia ex Japan growth.

StarHillGlobal Reit 3QFY14

Gross Revenue                            = $48.6m
NPI                                             = $39.6m
DPU Available For Distribution   = $28.6m
DPU                                           = 1.27 cents
Total Debt                                   = $859m
Gearing                                       = 29.1%
Interest Cover                             = 5.1
Avg Interest Rate                        = 3.15%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio        = 80%
Avg Debt To Maturity               = 3.6 years
NAV (Adjusted)                          = $0.92 cents
Total Assets                               = $2,946,513,000
Total Liabilities                          = $938,642,000
Net Assets                                 = $2,007,871,000
Free Float                                  = 55% (exclude YTL &AI

Monday, October 27, 2014

CDL Hospitality Trust 3QFY14

Revenue                         = $40,113m
NPI                                 = $33,823m
Debts/Asset Ratio          = 30.2%
Total Assets                   = $2,316m
Interest Cover                = 8.3
DPU                               = 2.61 cents (3QFY13 2.63 cents)

Singapore Hotels
Occupancy          92%
ARR                    $209
RevPAR              $192

AscendasIndiaTrust 2QFY14/15

Total Property Income                          =  Rupee 1,553m
NPI                                                        =  Rupee 929m
Income Available For Dist                   =  $12.9m
DPU                                                      =  1.25 cents
NAV                                                      = 62 cents
Interest Cover                                         = 4.3
Gearing                                                   = 22% (taken acct of adjusted computation Gross Borrowing  +/- derivative financial instruments assets or liabilities)
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt                   = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt                            = 6.5%
Effective Borrowings                             = $236m

Currently at S$1 to INR 48.

Friday, October 24, 2014

CapitalRetail China Trust 3QFY2014

Revenue                                         = RMB 253,708,000
NPI                                                 = RMB 159,326,000
Income Available For Dist            =  $19,484,000
DPU                                               = 2.35 cents (2.13 cents for 2Q2013)
NAV                                               = $1.47 (net of dist)
Gearing                                           = 30.8%
Net Debt/EBITDA                          = 5.9
Interest Cover                                  = 5.4
Avg Term To Maturity                   = 2.16
Avg Cost Of Debt                           = 3.47%

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

SoilBuild 3QFY2014

Revenue                                 = $16,916,000
NPI                                         = $14,193,000
Distributable Income              = $12,539,000
DPU                                        = 1.546 cents
Borrowings                              = $289m
NAV                                        = 80 cents
Aggregate Leverage                = 30.3%
All-In Interest Rate                  = 3.08%
Interest Cover                          = 5.1
Weighted Avg Debt Maturity  = 2.0 years
S&P Ratings                            = BBB-

SuntecReit 3QFY2014

Gross revenue                                  = $71.5m
Net Property Income                       = $48.8m
Income Available For Distribution  =$58.3m
DPU                                                  = 2.328 cents

Total Assets  =   $8,365m
Total Debts   =   $3,087m
Net Assets     =  $5,144m
NAV              = $2.033

Outstanding Debt     = $2.907b
Debt-to-Asset Ratio = 34.4%
Interest Cover          = 4.6

Corporate Rating = "Baa2"
Average All-in Financing Cost  = 2.42%

Friday, October 17, 2014

FirstReit 3QFY2014

Gross Revenue                                    $23,843,000
NPI                                                      $23,452,000
Distributable Income                           $14,688,000
DPU                                                     2.02 cents
NAV                                                     96.99 cents
Gearing                                                 below 35%

No refinancing needs till 2017.It provide an yield of 6.8% based on annualized dpu at a share price of $1.19/..

Thursday, October 16, 2014


Property Income                               = $47,628K
Net Property Income                        = $38,524K
Share Of Results Of Associates        = $14,401K
Rental Support                                  = $12,655K
Income Available For Distribution   = $52,027K
DPS                                                    = 1.85 cents
All-In Interest Rate                            = 2.2%
Weighed Avg Term Of Expiry          = 3.5 years
Interest Cover                                     = 5.1
Percentage Fixed Of Debt                  = 72%
Total Borrowing                                 = $2,888m
NAV                                                   = $1.39
Aggregate Leverage                            = 42.1%

SPH FY2014

 Profit & Loss (Before Taxation)

Newspaper & Magazine              $246,381,000
Property                                       $239,397,000
Treasury & Investment                $30,419,000
Others                                           $12,194,000

Newspaper & Magazine segment decrease by 16% yoy and now form slightly less than half of overall PBT.Decline was basically due to lower advertisement revenue.Partial divestment in 701Search result in a gain in Others segment.Hardcopy ST circulation decrease  but digital increase yoy.Seletar Mall is target to open in Nov 2014.Final Dividend of 14 cents declared for FY2014.

With a total dividend of 21 cents at a current price of $4.16 per share, it is operating more like a pseudo bond of 5%.Do not expect too much in term of price appreciation, just get your 5% and hope and business fundamental do no deteriorate too much from here.