Saturday, December 31, 2016

SGX - A Good Snapshot


The below was taken from the ST on 31/12/2016. I find it a good summary.


Friday, December 30, 2016

My Portfolio 2016 (Closing)

Edited in the prices as at Dec 30 (after trading). Starhub, SPH, SIA, HPH Trust & AsiaPay have gone down quite a bit vis-a-vis last year closing. The rest have seen gains or more or less at par (+/-). throughout the year, I made tactical purchases of GLP at $1.6 (let go at $1.87), Silverlake at $0.5 (let go at $0.56),Ezion at $0.30 (let go at $0.36), ChinaMerchant at $0.76 (let go at $1.02). All in all, my realised trading gains this year is around $12K which is good plus dividends (which is around 5% of portfolio).Overall, 2016 is a resonable year for me although the STI index remain largely the same y-o-y.

DBS  ($17.34)
UOB ($20.40)
OCBC ($8.92)
SPH   ($3.53)
SingTel ($3.65)
StarHub ($2.81)
CityDev ($8.28)
SP Ausnet ($1.64)
Keppel Infra Trust ($0.475)
Olam ($1.97)
Wilmar ($3.59)
SIA ($9.67)
Keppelcorp ($5.79)
SembCorp ($2.85)
CroesusRetail ($0.835)
CDL Trust ($1.34)
AsiaPay TV Trust ($0.375)
Capital China Trust ($1.37)
Ascendas India Trust ($1.015)
Lippo Malls Trust ($0.37)
SuntecReit ($1.65)
OUE Comm Trust ($0.695)
StarHillGlobal Reit ($0.74)
MapleLogistics Trust ($1.02)
M1 ($1.96)
SATs ($4.85)
First Reit ($1.265)
KReit ($1.02))
Accordia Golf Trust ($0.63)
SoilBuild Trust ($0.64)
HPH Trust ($0.63)
AscotReit($1.13))
OCC 5.1%NCPS 100 ($104.0)
DBS$800M4.7%NCPS ($105.56)


Tuesday, December 20, 2016

The Power Of Demographics

As Britain grapples with a depreciating pound sterling in a post-Brexit era and India continues to grow rapidly since its economic liberalization in 1991, the two have swapped spots in the rankings of world economies. 

For the first time in 150 years, India has surpassed its erstwhile colonial master in terms of GDP, which is now the fifth largest in the world after the U.S., China, Japan and Germany.

With three countries in the top 5 being in Asia, the trend is clear that it make sense to be optimistic about the prospect of Asia.Additionally, there are a couple of medium size economies with more than 100m population growing at a faster clip compare to the average eg Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines etc.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

MyRepublic - Game Over?


Below is MyRepublic Statement's after the results of the bid. Myrepublic bid at $102.5m to return empty handed.

"It was after serious consideration that we decided that bidding $105M and beyond for the spectrum did not support our vision and business case for mobility in Singapore. "

Now considering TPG telecom winning bid at $105m, the idea that a mere excess of $2.5m can totally derail Myrepublic mobile ambition in singapore does not make any sense. The remarks are merely brave words to gloss over a strategic loss. Myrepublic must have through its channels gotten the idea that $100m is going to be TPG bid, so they went for $102.5m.In the end, they got outfox by TPG who have much deeper pocket to play this game.

The prospect of MyRepublic after losing this bid is dim as they will find it very very difficult to remain a niche broadband player with 4 telcos in a small and concentrated market.M1 is closing on them on pricing and Starhub is not that far.

As for TPG  telcom, the easy part of winning the bid is over. Now, the difficult and arduous journey start. It remain to be seen that they can overcome the odds having to start virtually from scratch. Their only advantage is support from a financially strong remote parent in Australia which is experiencing growth pains in their home market.

TPG Telcom Win Bid For 4th telco

TPG Telecom has emerged as Singapore's fourth telco, with a winning bid of S$105 million in the New Entrant Spectrum Auction (NESA) which concluded on Tuesday.

TPG will be provisionally allocated 60 MHz of spectrum made available in the NESA - comprising 20 MHz in the 900 MHz spectrum band and 40 MHz in the 2.3 GHz spectrum band - to provide International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) and IMT-Advanced services (eg, 4G services).
The new spectrum rights are expected to commence on April 1, 2017 at the earliest, the Info-communications Media Development Authority (IMDA) announced on Tuesday.

TPG will be required to utilise the allocated spectrum to provide nationwide street level coverage for 4G within 18 months from the start of the new spectrum rights; road tunnels and in-building service coverage within 30 months from the start of the new spectrum rights; and coverage for MRT underground stations and lines within 54 months from the start of the new spectrum rights.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

SATs vs SIA Engineering Revisited

I wrote a short comparison between SATs and SIA Engineering quite a while ago. Recently, I revisited the article and was pleasantly surprised that my observations than was spot on. i am still vested in SATs but not in SIA Engineering.I am currently mulling over the price/valuations/eps between the two.

http://diyvalueinvesting.blogspot.sg/2014/11/sia-engineering-vs-sats-comparison.html

Sunday, November 20, 2016

My Comments on 4th Telco

It is becoming clearer who will be on the bid to be the NESA. It is going to be Myrepublic and TPG. It is not surprising that airYotta got kick out as it is a last minute formed company with only two executives from OMGTel.

now, assuming that both potential qualifiers bid, then the auction price is definitely not going to be lower than the minimum reserved price of $35m. TPG definitely have much deeper pockets than MyRepublic to go in a price war as they are a big provider of broad band in Australia.It is listed in Australia and the company make good profits.

If MyRepublic loses the bid, it may as well kiss goodbye to their business in singapore. M1's current broadbind pricing is even better than theirs and Starhub is closing it.It do not see how with a small base of 35K broadband users, they can survive with TPG being the fourth NMO.If MyRepublic won the bid, due to their lack of scale and financing, I seriously doubt they can launch a challenge to the incumbents. The mobile price war has already started as evidence from the drop in revenues from m1 and Starhub recent quarter.They have to satisfy the stringent QoS requirements of mobile coverage
which is going to soak up a lot of resources and funds in the next few years.There is also the impending capex expenditure that will eventually come up with 4.5G/5G in a few years time.

If TPG will to win the bid (which I think they stand a better chance), they will have to start from a fresh slate in a foreign country without any prior presence.TPG has done well it Australia previously as a high growth company via some smart acquisitions and M&A. but in the recent quarter, the revenues slowed down drastically and share price drop by 25%.Going into a 4th telco is going to be s slow and tedious grind. It will not help them repeat the high growth that they have achieved before.
The intention of TPG to come in is not clear to me as they are competing with Optus in Australia in broadband and in mobile as a MVNO.They may have other agenda in mind.

In any case, without local roaming agreement, it is not easy for a new telco unless they are going to soak in for the long term and burn hard cash.At the end of the day, the outcome is still uncertain as the incumbents have show a willingness to slash price to compete.


The current downward draft in share prices of Starhub and M1 provide some opportunities if you are willing to take some calculated risks.The effect of a 4th telco competiion will only come in a few years later if they manage to put up the requisite infrastructure to meet the QoS standards set in the bid process.

As a final comment, it is a human tendency to both overshoot on the extremes of optimism and pessimism.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

LMIRT 3QFY16

Revenue                                 = $47,030,000
NPI                                         = $43,338,000
Distributable Income             = $24,153,000
DPU                                       = 0.86 cents
NAV                                       = 39 cents
Gearing                                   = 32.7%
Occupancy                              = 94.8%
Total Debt                               = $695m

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

City Development Q3 2016


Revenue                       $923m
PATMI                         $170m
EPS                              18.7 cents
NAV                             $9.91
ROE                             4.54%

Recurring Income Segment comprises of 62% EBITDA and 51% Total  Assets
International Income Segment comprises of 43% EBITDA and 46% Total Assets

Net Borrowings            $3038m
Gearing                         27% (20% after taking into account fair value revaluation)
Interest Cover Ratio     10.9X

President Trump - Some Remarks


I bet a lot of people outside the US are shock or surprise at Trump's victory yesterday. Bear in mind that his is a decisive victory that do not leave doubt on anyone mind as to the will of the electorate whichever ways you try to slice the results. It also reveal how disconnected the US media and pollsters are with the ground as many of us far away from the battlefield source our info from these sources. What a shame as the proclaim value of freedom of speech is to allow people to look at things from different angles so that the truth can emerge. In this case, truth is buried under the titanic load of views of the intelligentsia and elites.

There is actually some silver lining in Trump's victory.Just image if Hillary was yesterday victor with a razor thin margin, it is entirely conceivable that Trump or at least a sizable portion of his ardent supporters will not take it lying down so easily.There will be contentions, protests and even violence that will eventually drag into a long and worn out process. There is no way Hillary could have govern under such circumstances in addition to a Republican congress both in senate and the house.

Now with Trump's victory, there is an outlet to channel those pent up frustrations with minimal disruption to the US at large.And Trump who is given a free hand will be able to enact some of the policies that he want without the damage of gridlock that plagued the entire second term of Obama administration. At least you can get some things done, only issue is whether these are the right things or not. In any cases, it is better than gridlock, in my personal opinion.

my two cents worth!

Monday, November 7, 2016

Starhub - Big Share Buy Back

Starhub bought a whopping 974K  of its own shares on 7/11/16 costing more than $3m in a single day!!! if you are thinking of shorting starhub share price in view of the impending news of the 4th telco spectrum auction, I think you should think again.

Friday, November 4, 2016

SingPost - Jialat


Singapore Post just released their Q2 results. revenues increased by 22.3% whereas net profits dropped by 27.9% due to higher expenses incurred due to Logistics Hub, redevelopment of SPC Mall and decline in domestic mail. dividend is also cut from 1.5 cents to 1 cents forthe quarter.

The combine US subsidiaries Jagged Peak & TradeGlobal incurred an operating loss  of $6.8m for the quarter.

A lot of people associated their optimism for Alibaba with SingPost.I think this might be misplaced.Alibaba business model need also a few addtional servers to ram up their business.SingPost is just the workhorse to ensure that the nitty & gritty role of ensuring  parcels get delivered to the end customer.It is a necessary part of the Alibaba puzzle but not the profitable part of it. Alibaba invested in SingPost to have control over SingPost solely to be their workhouse in SE asia.

I divested at close to $2 and never regretted it.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

OUE Com Reit 3QFY16

Revenue                          $44,184K
NPI                                  $35,328K
Amount Avail For Dist   $17,214K
DPU                                1.32 cents
NAV                                89 cents
Gearing                            40.8%
Total Debt                       $1277m
Avg Cost Of Debt            3.4%
Avg Term Of Debt           2.7 years
Interest Cover                   3.1 years

Friday, October 28, 2016

StarHillGlobal 1QFY16/17

Revenue                                   $55.3m
NPI                                           $42.9m
Income Available For Dist       $29.5m
DPU                                          1.30 cents
Total Debt                                 $1,139m
Gearing                                     35.1%
Interest Cover                           4.4X
Average Interest Rate               3.06%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio      73%
NAV                                          91 cents

Thursday, October 27, 2016

CDL Hospitality Trust 3QFY16

NPI                                               $34.8m
Income Available For Dist           $24.2m
DPU                                              2.44 cents (3QFY16 3.36cents)
Occupancy                                    90.7%
ARR                                              $186
RevPAR                                        $168
Total Assets                                   $2,525m
Debt                                               $926m
Gearing                                          36.7%
Interest Cover                                 6.0X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt          2.4%
NAV                                               $1.5586

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

AscendasIndia Trust 2QFY16/17

Total Property Income                          =  Rupee 1,841m
NPI                                                        =  Rupee 1,247m
Income Available For Dist                   =  $14.1m
DPU                                                      =  1.37 cents (2QFY2015/2016 1.37 cents)
NAV                                                      = 69 cents
Interest Cover                                         = 3.6
Gearing                                                   = 29%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt                   = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt                            = 7%
Effective Borrowings                             = $412m (INR:75%,SGD:25%)

Monday, October 24, 2016

CRCT 3QFY16

Gross Revenue                                            RMB 248,788,000
NPI                                                              RMB 161,283,000
NPI                                                              $ 32,766,000
Distributable Income                                   $ 20,550,000
DPU                                                             2.36 cents (2.64 cents for 3QFY15)
NAV (adjusted for dist)                               $ 1.54
Gearing                                                        36.7%
Interest Cover                                              6.2X
Avg Cost Of Debt                                        2.90%
Unencumbered Assets                                 97.8%
Net Debt/EBITDA                                       7.8X

MapleLogistics 2QFY16/17

Revenue                                     = $91,562K
NPI                                            = $76,812K
Amount Distributable to Shrs   = $46,604K
DPU                                          = 1.86 cents
Total Debt                                  - $2,047m
NAV                                          = $1.00
Avg leverage ratio                     = 37.6%
Avg debt duration                      = 3.5years
Interest Cover                            = 5.7X

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Ascott Residence Trust 3QFY2016

Revenue                                    $129.9m
Gross Profit                               $57.5m
Unitholders Distribution           $38.7m
DPU                                          2.35 cents
RevPAU                                    $144
Gearing                                      41%
Interest Cover                            4.2X
Effective Interest rate                2.4%
Percentage Of Fixed Debts        80%
NAV                                           $1.30
Weighted Avg Debt to Maturity 4.6 years

SuntecReit 3QFY2016

Gross Revenue                                 = $82.4m
NPI                                                   = $57.2m
Distributable Income                        = $64.3m
DPU                                                  = 2.535 cents
Total Liabilities                                = $3335m
Gearing                                             = 37.8%
All-In-Financing-Cost                      = 2.28%
Interest Coverage Ratio                    = 3.9X
Adjusted NAV                                  = $2.102

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

FirstReit 3QFY2016

Revenue                             = $26.9m
NPI                                    = $26.6m
Distributable Income         = $16.3m
DPU                                   = 2.12 cents (3QFY2015 2.08 cents)
Total Debt                          = $396m
Gearing                               = 30.0%
NAV                                   = 102.93cents

Gearing reduced from 34% to 30% due to the issuance of $60m subordinated perpertuties to reduee debt

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

KReit 3QFY2016

Property Income                    $39.5m
NPI                                        $31.6m
Shr of Associates                  $24.7m
Shr of JV                               $7.9m
Income Available for Dist    $52.5m
DPU                                      1.60 cents
NAV                                     $1.41
Gearing                                 39%
Interest Coverage Ratio        4.7
All-in Interest rate                 2.53%
Top Ten Tenants WALE      6.1 years
Portfolio WALE                    8.5 years


Monday, October 17, 2016

Keppel Infrastructure Trust 3QFY2016

DPU                                0.93 cents
Distributable CF             $38.9m
NAV                               31.6 cents
Gearing                           37%

Total Assets                    $4,086m ($3151m ex-Basslink)
Total Liabilities              $2,665m ($1169m, ex-Basslink)
Total Borrowings           $1,753m ($1040m, ex-Basslink)
Cash                                $259m ($208m, ex-Basslin)
Net Debt/EBITDA          7.6X (5.8X, ex-Basslink)

Distributable Cash Flows
City Gas                        $10,090m
Concessions                  $18,221m
KMC                             $11,398m
DC One                         $1,595m
Others                            ($2,418m)
Total                              $38,886m

Friday, October 14, 2016

SPH FY2016

Operating Revenue                    $1,124,349K
Operating Profit                         $305,169K
Investment Income                    $51,753K
Profit After Taxation                 $306,139K
Net Profit Attr To Shrs              $265,293K
Final DPS                                   11 cents
EPS                                            16 cents
NAV                                           $2.18
Cash & Cash Equiv                    $312,894K

Comments: From the table below, SPH is becoming more of a REIT cum investment company rather than a media company. Property and Invesment/Treasury make up more thn 50% of the Profit before tax.

Profit/Loss Before Taxation

Media                              $175,204K
Property                          $149,586K
Investment                      $48,833K
Others                             ($24,405K)
Fair Value Change          $11,823K
Total                               $361,041K

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Soilbuild Trust 3QFY2016

Gross Revenue                                                = $19,731K
NPI                                                                  = $17,264K
Distributable Income                                       = $14,551K
DPU                                                                 = 1.399 cents
NAV                                                                 = 77 cents
Leverage                                                          = 36%
Average All-In Interest Ratio                           = 3.42%
Interest Cover                                                  = 4.6X
Weighted Avg Debt Maturity                           = 3.1 years
WALE                                                              = 4.6
Secured Leverage                                             = 14%
Occupancy                                                        = 94.8%

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Marco Polo Marine - Risk Heightens

I first wrote a post on the above on Nov 17 2015. Recently, MPM has started a process to seek consent from noteholders to rescheduled $50m worth of notes due Oct 2016 for another three years.

It looks like my observation is quite prescient. The risk of MPM entering judicial management or even liquidation has heightens.

Monday, September 5, 2016

CDL - Diversifying from Brick-&-Mortar World


City Developments Limited (CDL) will invest RMB 100 million ($20.4 million) for a 20% stake in mamahome, a fast-growing Chinese online apartment rental platform. After CDL’s investment, mamahome will be owned jointly by the founder Shanghai Chongfu (56%), E-House Capital (24%) and CDL China (20%).

mamahome is a one-stop solution for both apartment owners and rental customers. It provides an online booking website, online management software, and other value-added services including housekeeping, renovation, 24-hour concierge and call centre. In addition, mamahome also provides management for its own brands of serviced apartments — Suisse Place, Locca and Login.

Currently, there are more than 100,000 apartment listings on mamahome across 20 cities in China. Over 75% of the apartments are located in key gateway cities – Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

CroesusRetail 4QFY16


Revenue                                                                  JPY 2,675,351K
Income Available For Distribution                        JPY 1,068,454K
NPI                                                                         JPY 1,439,526K
DPU                                                                        1.7 cents
Gearing                                                                   45.3%
Interest Coverage Ratio                                          3.7X
Avg All-in Cost Of Debt                                         1.9%
Debt Maturity                                                          2.5 Years
NAV                                                                        JPY 76.87 ($1.01)



Thursday, August 11, 2016

Singapore Go! Go! Go!


Really hope that Schooling can muster every ounce of his muscles tomorrow to beat the legendary Phelps. If it happens, Singapore will forever be etched onto the  collective memory of everyone who watches the olympics as the tiny nation that stop the great Phelps from getting his clean sweep in Rio 2016.



CityDev Q2FY16


Revenue                          $1,092m
PATMI                            $134m
EPS                                 14 cents
NAV                               $9.75
ROE                                2.7%
Cash & Cash Equiv        $3,357m
Net Borrowings              $3,016m
Gearing                           27% (20% with fair value revaluation)
Interest Cover                 10.1x


Friday, August 5, 2016

SuntecReit - Another Acquisition in Australia

Singapore, 5 August 2016 – ARA Trust Management (Suntec) Limited, the manager of Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (“Suntec REIT”, and the “Manager”), is pleased to announce that Suntec REIT, through Southgate Trust, in which it holds a 50% indirect interest, has entered into an agreement to acquire 50% interest in the iconic Southgate Complex (the “Property”) from Dexus Southgate Trust (“Dexus”) for a consideration of A$289 million. 
In addition, separate put and call option agreements have been entered into with Dexus where the remaining 50% interest in Southgate Complex will be acquired for the same purchase consideration of A$289 million.  
Located alongside the Yarra River in the Southbank arts and leisure precinct of Melbourne, Australia, Southgate Complex is a freehold, landmark waterfront integrated development comprising two AGrade office towers, a 3-storey retail podium and a car park with 1,026 lots. The office and retail components constitute approximately 87% and 13% of the total net lettable area (“NLA”) respectively. Surrounded by business, residential, recreational and retail amenities, the Property is directly opposite Flinders Street train station and within close proximity to Melbourne’s city rail loop.  
Commenting on Suntec REIT’s second acquisition in Australia, Mr. Yeo See Kiat, Chief Executive Officer of the Manager, said, “We are pleased to acquire the iconic Southgate Complex which is a strategic fit with Suntec REIT’s portfolio of quality assets and in line with our strategy to expand our footprint in Asia Pacific. The acquisition augments Suntec REIT’s presence in Australia.”  
The Property has a total NLA of 820,324 sq ft and is leased to well-established tenants such as IBM, The Herald and Weekly Times, Commonwealth of Australia, APT, Dairy Australia, City Road Melbourne and LinkedIn. The committed occupancy was 88% as at 5 August 2016 with a weighted lease expiry of approximately 4.6 years. The annual rental escalations for the office leases are predominantly between 3% to 4%. 
5 August 2016 
 
Mr. Yeo said, “The acquisition will further enhance Suntec REIT’s income and geographical diversification. It also offers organic growth potential from the repositioning of the retail component and the strengthening office market in the CBD of Melbourne.”    

SuntecReit - Great News!

Singapore, 4 August 2016 – ARA Trust Management (Suntec) Limited, the manager of Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (“Suntec REIT”, and the “Manager”), is pleased to announce that it has received practical completion for 177 Pacific Highway, the iconic, A-grade state-of-the-art commercial tower in North Sydney on 1 August 2016.  
In addition to CIMIC Group Limited (“CIMIC”) (previously Leighton Holdings), it has also secured Vodafone Group Plc, Jacobs Engineering Group Inc, Pepper Group Limited, Cisco Systems, Objective Corporation Limited and CBRE as tenants.  
Mr. Yeo See Kiat, Chief Executive Officer of the Manager, said, “We are pleased that with these new commitments, our property is now 100% leased and the WALE is 9.25 years.” 
Vodafone Group Plc, Jacobs Engineering Group Inc, Cisco Systems and Objective Corporation Limited will join CIMIC to relocate its Australian headquarters to the newest landmark building in North Sydney. In particular, Vodafone would be occupying over 100,000 sq ft at 177 Pacific Highway, representing the biggest leasing transaction in North Sydney this year. 
Mr. Yeo added, “We are also pleased that some of Australia’s leading technology, financial services and property firms will call 177 Pacific Highway home and we look forward to welcoming over 3,000 employees to their new workplace in the coming months.” 
177 Pacific Highway is located in one of the most prominent sites in North Sydney Central Business District at the junction of Pacific Highway and Berry Street. It was recently awarded a 5 Star Green Star – Office Design v3 Certified Rating. The landmark building is designed by award-winning architecture firm Bates Smart and boasts state-of-the-art design and harbour views. 
4

Thursday, August 4, 2016

LMIR Trust 2QFY16

Revenue                                 = $46,806,000
NPI                                         = $43,124,000
Distributable Income             = $23,802,000
DPU                                       = 0.85 cents
NAV                                       = 38 cents
Gearing                                   = 35.7%
WALE                                    = 4.67 years

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

OUE Comm Reit 2QFY16

Revenue                          $45.7m
NPI                                  $35.2m
Amount Avail For Dist   $17.7m
DPU                                1.36 cents
NAV                                91 cents
Gearing                            40.2%
Total Debt                       $1258m ($1228m,RMB145m)
Avg Cost Of Debt            3.53%
Avg Term Of Debt           2.72 years
Interest Cover                   3.2 years

Friday, July 29, 2016

Swiber - Judicial Management

The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Swiber Holdings Limited (the “Company”) refers to its earlier announcement dated 27 July 2016, regarding the appointment of Mr Cameron Lindsay Duncan and Ms Muk Siew Peng, care of KordaMentha Pte Ltd, as the joint and several Provisional Liquidators of the Company (“Provisional Liquidators”).

On 28 July 2016, the Board of Directors and the Provisional Liquidators have had discussions with the Company’s major financial creditor who indicated that they are supportive of an application for the Company to place itself into judicial management instead of liquidation. 

Today, the Company and its subsidiary, Swiber Offshore Construction Pte Ltd (“SOC”), have taken out applications to place the Company and SOC under judicial management and interim judicial management. As a consequence, the Company has applied to discharge the provisional liquidation order and to withdraw the winding up application made on 27 July 2016.  

StarHillGlobal Reit 4QFY15/16

Revenue                                   $53.6m
NPI                                           $41.4m
Income Available For Dist       $28.4m
DPU                                          1.29 cents
Total Debt                                 $1,127m
Gearing                                     35.0%
Interest Cover                           4.3X
Average Interest Rate               3.09%
Unencumbered Asset Ratio      73%
NAV                                          92 cents

Thursday, July 28, 2016

CDL Hospitality Trust 2QF16

NPI                                               $31.4m
Income Available For Dist           $22.1m
DPU                                              2.23 cents (1HFY16 4.45cents)
Occupancy                                     83.5%
ARR                                              $188
RevPAR                                        $157
Total Assets                                   $2,53m
Debt                                               $919m
Gearing                                          35.3%
Interest Cover                                 5.8X
Avg Weighted Cost Of Debt          2.4%
NAV                                               $1.5526

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

CRCT 2QFY16

Gross Revenue                                            RMB 246,737,000
NPI                                                              RMB 169,937,000
NPI                                                              $ 35,501,000
Distributable Income                                   $ 23,374,000
DPU                                                             2.61 cents (2.73 cents for 2QFY15)
NAV (adjusted for dist)                               $ 1.55
Gearing                                                        29.2%
Interest Cover                                              6.4X
Avg Cost Of Debt                                        2.97%
Unencumbered Assets                                 97.5%
Net Debt/EBITDA                                       5.3X

Monday, July 25, 2016

MapleLogistics Trust 1QFY16/17

Revenue                                     = $89,562K
NPI                                            = $75,198K
Amount Distributable to Shrs   = $46,037K
DPU                                          = 1.85 cents
Total Debt                                  - $1,868m (exclude $250m perpetual securities issue in May)
NAV                                          = $1
Weighed Avg Interest rate        = 2.3%
Avg leverage ratio                     = 35.9% (decrease due to issue of perpetual securities)
Avg debt duration                      = 3.6 years
Interest Cover                            = 5.6X

Friday, July 22, 2016

AscendasIndia Trust 1QFY16/17

Total Property Income                          =  Rupee 1,776m
NPI                                                        =  Rupee 1,164m
Income Available For Dist                   =  $14.0m
DPU                                                      =  1.36 cents (1QFY2016/2017 1.37 cents)
NAV                                                      = 65 cents
Interest Cover                                         = 3.6
Gearing                                                   = 29%
Percentage Fixed Rate Debt                   = 100%
Average Cost Of Debt                            = 7.1%
Effective Borrowings                             = $397m (INR:75%,SGD:25%)

INR:SGD (49.3:1)

Thursday, July 21, 2016

SuntecReit 2QFY16

Gross Revenue                                 = $78.9m
NPI                                                   = $52.7m
Distributable Income                        = $63.3m  ($8m from capital)
DPU                                                  = 2.501 cents
Total Debt Outstanding                    = $3041m
Gearing                                             = 34.7%
All-In-Financing-Cost                      = 2.77%
Interest Coverage Ratio                    = 3.6X
Adjusted NAV                                  = $2.101

SATS 1QFY16/17

Revenue                                  $424.2m
(Food Solution                        $240m
 Gateway Services                  $184.9m
 Corporate                               $1.3m)

Operating Profit                      $54.5m
Share Of Associates               $12.2m
Profit Attributable to Shrs       $64.1m
Underlying Profit                    $55.5m
EPS                                         5.8cents
NAV                                        $1.4
Debt/Equity Ratio                    0.08

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Ascott Reit 2QFY16


Revenue                                    $119.4m
Gross Profit                               $57.9m
Unitholders Distribution            $35m
DPU                                          2.13 cents
RevPAU                                    $142
Gearing                                      41%
Interest Cover                            4.1X
Effective Interest rate                2.5%
Percentage Of Fixed Debts        80%
NAV                                           $1.32
Weighted Avg Debt to Maturity 4.9 years

Ascott Reit is my latest addition. I like it for its diversified portfolio in 38 cities within 14 countries with 90plus properties (11K plus apartments).

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

KReit 2QFY16

Property Income                    $40.6m
NPI                                        $32.5m
Shr of Associates                  $20.1m
Shr of JV                               $8.3m
Income Available for Dist    $52.5m
DPU                                      1.61 cents
NAV                                     $1.41
Gearing                                 39%
Interest Coverage Ratio        4.6
All-in Interest rate                 2.55%

Monday, July 18, 2016

Keppel Infra Trust 2QFY16

DPU                                0.93 cents
Distributable CF             $38m (City Gas - $12.1m, KMC - $11.2m, Concessions - $17.4m, Others - ($2.6m) )
NAV                               32.4 cents
Gearing                           36%    (25% without Basslink)

Total Assets                    $4,061m
Total Liabilities              $2,596m
Total Borrowings           $1,706m ($1007m without Basslink)
Net Debt                         $1,455m ($799m without Basslink)
Cash                                $251m
Net Debt/EBITDA          6.1X (3.8X without Basslink)

Basslink loans are non-recourse and currently Basslink CF are used to pay down debt and not for DPU. As a result of an outage earlier this year, currently the borrower is unable to meet the interest coverage ratio under the agreed Project Financing.Thus, as a condition of the waiver given under this default event, the borrower is  obliged to agree with the Financiers on a Long Tem Financing Plan  to be announced at a later date.


Friday, July 15, 2016

South China Sea Dispute Snapshot







SPH Q3FY2016

Operating Revenue                    $291,579K
Operating Profit                         $60,770K
Investment Income                    $18,672K
Profit After Taxation                 $61,980K
Net Profit Attr To Shrs              $52,656K
EPS                                            3 cents
NAV                                           $2.11
Cash & Cash Equiv                    $278,460K

Comment: Results of Q3FY2016 impacted by impairment of goodwill and intangibles amounting to $28.4m for the magazines business due to unfavourable business conditions.Excluding impairment charges, operating profit would have fallen by $17.1m.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

FirstReit 2QFY2016

Revenue                             = $26.6m
NPI                                    = $26.3m
Distributable Income         = $16.2m
DPU                                   = 2.11 cents (2QFY2015 2.07 cents)
Total Debt                          = $456.7m
Gearing                               = 34.4%
NAV                                   = 103.12 cents

Remarks.In the press release, it stated that the issue of $60m subordinated perpetual securities at a fixed distribution rate of  5.68% for the first 5 years will reduce gearing from 34% to 30% as the proceeds will be used to reduce debt and increase debt headroom for further acquisition. I find this sort of statement misleading as perpetual securities are still considered as a form of debt, in my view.Definitely, a gearing of 30% without any perpetual securities is quite different from a gearing of 30% with $60m perpetual securities. I believe FirstReit is not the only REIT that is doing this, a number of reits have raise perpetual securities to get around borrowing from banks.

Currently, the manager hold about 5.67% of the total number of units issued. Each quarter, 70% of the management fee is paid with units and the remainder 30% paid with cash.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

SoilBuild Trust 2QFY16

Gross Revenue                                                = $19,570K
NPI                                                                  = $17,325K
Distributable Income                                       = $14,727K
DPU                                                                 = 1.565 cents
NAV                                                                 = 79 cents
Leverage                                                          = 35.9%
Average All-In Interest Ratio                           = 3.44%
Interest Cover                                                  = 5X
Weighted Avg Debt Maturity                           = 3.4 years
WALE                                                              = 4.6
Secured Leverage                                             = 15%
Occupancy                                                        = 92%

Friday, July 8, 2016

Olam

Observed recently that Olam has buy back close 20m of its own shares over the last 2-3 months.That is a whopping $36m worth of purchase in cash (assume a price of $1.8/shr).Since Olam already as a small float of less than 20% after the buyback initiated by Temasek a while ago, I wonder why they are doing this? Is it because some major shareholders is/are unloading?or it is something else?I doubt it is the minority shareholders that is unloading because they did not let go at $2.2 (from the Temasek offer) a while ago.

Remember, a while ago, Temasek sold 20% of their shareholding to Mitsubishi Lifestyle at $2.7 apiece.Right now, the two largest shareholders are Temasek and Mitsubishi. This is followed by the Kewalram family, CEO and its senior management staff.

I am still vested with Olam and will follow on this with interest. The positive thing about Olam right now is that they have prune away a substantial part of the unprofitable business and interest rate on debts have come down with Temasek backing.

Monday, July 4, 2016

CMPH & SilverLake Axis


I have recently received the cash  for the unconditional GO offer at $1.02/shr for a total of 21550 shares.It was  a good investment for me at I purchased at an average price of around 60 cents/shr excluding dividends. All in all, I held these shares for an average period of 5 years.I stumbled upon CMPH by chance 5 years ago after reading some comments from some forumers.

I have since then reinvested the amount into Silverlake Axis at an average price of 49.5 cents/shr.Why SilverLake Axis? when there are some attacks on its corporate practice relating RPT last year. Firstly, I think the business is still sound and price has come down to more realistic levels.The company do not carry a lot of debt and the business itself has a reasonably good moat for the time being unless fintech take on in  a very big way displacing traditional banks which I doubt.There is some upside as the company hold 27m shares in GIT which is listed in the Shenzhen stock exchange. GIT currently trade around 70 rmb/shr. Silverlake is entitled to sell 8m GIT shares from 24 June 16 onwards. Silverlake do give regular dividends and the value of ringgit is unlikely to depreciate sharply against the $S from the current ratio of 3:1.Lastly, the company has been doing a lot of buybacks which at least indicate to me that the management is willing to spent cash on its own shares in a big way.

The P/B ratio of around 7 doesn't look attractive but I think I prefer to look at its earning generative ability also. Commodities companies can carry a lot of assets but if these assets cannot generate regular earnings, they will depreciate and be written away pretty fast.Just look at Oceanus to see how pitiful things can get.I was lucky to exit it years ago from this speculative foray with a small loss after I noticed the PRC CEO did not even bother to turn up for the AGM but keep selling his shares in the market.

Sunday, June 12, 2016

KepInfraTrust - Basslink

Just read the news that  Basslink has return to service after being down since late dec 2015.This is indeed good news.It also tell me that repairing undersea cable is not a trivial affair.Currently, KepInfraTrust do not rely on Basslink Cashflow for DPU but rather used it to pay down debt it own for the asset.

Thursday, June 9, 2016

NOL Is Gone, What's next?

Today is a sad day in the history of corporate Singapore. A national icon is officially
gone. The offer for NOL by the French shipping group has turned unconditional.There are grave implications. Without a strong anchor shipping line, Singapore position as a shipping hub will be eroded in the longer term or completely diminished.

According to the outgoing CEO Ng YC, NOL was reluctant and slow to adjust to changes
where shipping services are increasingly commoditized. NOL relied on premium services and it cost structures are higher than its peers.

Let me share a story. In the early days of ecommerce in China when Alibaba was still just one of the guys, Ebay bought a company called EachNet which was rapidly establishing itself as the leader in ecommerce in china. Its CEO was  a US ivy league trained PRC.On a interview with a broadcasting programme, he openly snide at JaMa's approach of not charging its suppliers on its site as it would lead to a deterioration of service and quality as any 'Tom, Jack or Harry'  could be a supplier on Alibaba's Taobao site. On the other hand Eachnet imposed a charge on its supplier to host itself on its site,so it will provide a impetus for quality and control.
The rest is history.

Currently, Uber and Didi is locked in a ferocious struggle in China as both seek to grow as fast as possible to achieve scale over its competitor at the cost of losing billions a year. JackMa and Tencent are using the same tricks of running your competitor into the ground by showing who can 'tahan' the bleeding longer. Uber is no Eachnet but is still losing ground at this stage to Didi.

The moral of the story is that quality of  management matter. NOL problem is that it was not able to appoint the right people to run the company like its own baby where everyday you go to sleep worrying when will your competitor eat you up for lunch.That why you see Ng YC can still smile and tell a story for press interview.Frankly, no saf or civil servant should be 'parachuted' to run a listed company without spending at least 8 to 10 years working through the ranks and go through some excruciating business cycles. What more is that they have a CFO whose time is split between his CFO and MP roles. You don't do that when your company is in dire straits and require your utmost attention. You don't do justice to your shareholders,employees and customers.

Now NOL is gone. What's next? Keppel, SembCorp, SIA, SGX, Singpost etc are all potential targets.

For me, I had the good fortune to divest NOL when it was above $2.